Oil prices saw a record rise in March. Why the U.S. may not need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

By Myra P. Saefong

Trump urges other nations to 'Go get your own oil!'

The Iran war fueled a record monthly rise in global oil prices.

Global oil prices in March cemented their largest monthly gain on record, following huge disruptions to energy producers in the Middle East and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the past month.

What began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February has since spiraled into a historic global oil shock, resulting in the highest oil prices since 2022.

Now, President Donald Trump has told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the strait - one of the world's most important oil chokepoints - remains largely closed, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing administration officials. By calling an end to the war, the hope is that it might keep the conflict within Trump's initial four- to six-week time frame, according to the report.

If the White House were to declare a unilateral ceasefire, and assuming Israel follows suit, Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James investment-strategy analyst, said he would expect Iran to "reciprocate" by halting attacks on its neighbors. That, at a minimum, would "avoid the worst-case scenario of widespread damage to energy infrastructure."

Under that scenario, Trump may not need to ensure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz because Molchanov thinks Iran likely would once again start allowing the vast majority of commercial traffic to pass through it. Oil prices at more than $100 a barrel long term would hurt demand, and it "cannot be to Iran's benefit for there to be perpetual conflict with its neighbors" in regard to the strait, said Molchanov.

Tuesday's report that Trump may accept an end to the conflict without reopening the strait offered some tentative support to risk appetite. It's clear that oil above $100 a barrel is a "politically sensitive" level in Washington, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at StoneX, in recent commentary. That may explain Trump's "softer tone."

Global benchmark Brent crude's front-month May contract (BRNK26) settled at $118.35 on Tuesday, up 4.9% on its expiration day. It was 63.3% higher for the month, which was the largest monthly percentage rise ever based on data going back to 1988, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices finished Tuesday at their highest since June 2022.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery (CL00) (CL.1) (CLK26) settled at $101.38 Tuesday. It climbed 51.3% in March, the biggest monthly rise since May 2020.

Hormuz ripple effects

In a post on Truth Social, Trump told countries that "can't get jet fuel" to buy oil from the U.S. and build up courage to take the waterway. "The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" Trump wrote.

Read: Trump urges other nations to 'take' the Strait of Hormuz. Here's who has the most at stake.

Yet a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the passage of about 20% of the world's seaborne oil before the war, remains in question.

There's a possibility that oil prices could climb even higher if the strait doesn't reopen, Razaqzada said - and if oil stays high, inflation risks will start creeping back into focus and ultimately hurt risk appetite.

Data from Kpler show that 251 vessels, including those transporting oil and dry bulk goods, transited through the Strait of Hormuz from Feb. 28 through March 27. Before the war, the strait typically saw more than 100 vessels travel through in a single day, according to Kpler.

That transportation disruption, along with high energy costs, have swept up a broad range of commodities including natural gas (NG00), fertilizer, corn (C00), helium, sugar (SB00), and aluminum.

The energy story already has been rewriting the 2026 to 2027 supply-balance narrative for commodities, said Jake Hanley, chief growth officer and director of investments at Teucrium. "It appears most investors haven't caught on yet," he said.

Hanley thinks opportunities await commodity investors who understand the connections and can see the downstream impacts before they make headlines.

A global benchmark for natural-gas futures (TTFC00), for example, climbed around 57% in March, FactSet data show. Natural gas is a feedstock for fertilizer; fertilizer feeds crops, and crops feed livestock, noted Hanley. "The chain is long, but every link traces back to energy," he said.

Read: Americans are about to get a crash course in the global economy: Higher prices are coming for pineapples, plastic, chocolate and berries

The oil shock has been "massive" because roughly 6,000 products use crude in some fashion or another, said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex. Transportation costs also impact commodities that are not dependent on crude, so it's no wonder that we have seen such a widespread impact, he added.

That means there are "few places insulated" from the impact of this oil shock, said Meir.

-Myra P. Saefong

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