'It's time to buy Meta.' Why Morgan Stanley sees 45% upside for the stock.

By Christine Ji

There's a 'tactical buying opportunity' as concerns about AI and regulatory matters lead Meta's stock to trade at an unusually large discount to its historical average

New agentic-AI applications following Meta's recent acquisitions could lead to a multibillion-dollar opportunity, analysts predict.

Meta Platforms had already been struggling to prove itself as an artificial-intelligence winner when two back-to-back lawsuits last week injected fresh uncertainty into the stock.

To some on Wall Street, the recent volatility has created a perfect buying opportunity for shares of Meta (META), which are down 19% year-to-date.

Sentiment for Meta's stock has "troughed," Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak wrote in a Sunday note. Although he lowered his price target to $775 from $825 due to macroeconomic concerns, Nowak expressed confidence that the stock will fetch a higher valuation in the coming months. With shares trading at $536, Nowak's price target implies 45% upside from current levels.

"It's time to buy Meta," he wrote, naming the stock his new top pick within the internet sector.

Meta incurred around $380 million in legal penalties following the results of two lawsuits last week. But zooming out, investors were left to wonder if the company's advertising-business model would be subject to stricter regulation. In the aftermath of the rulings, Meta's stock was trading at approximately 15x its projected 2027 earnings of $36.31 per share.

This represents a 55% price-to-earnings-growth discount relative to its megacap technology peers and places the stock one standard deviation below its 10-year average, Nowak wrote. Meta's stock has traded at such a discount only three other times in the last decade, which suggests "a tactical buying opportunity with catalysts ahead," according to Nowak.

More: As Meta sheds $119 billion in market cap, has the stock become 'uninvestable'?

He said the regulatory risk is being overstated, especially given the geopolitical competition surrounding the AI race. "In a world where we believe the U.S. government is behind and supporting Meta in order to help make them one of the global AI leaders, we expect to see thoughtful legislation that balances social-media access against proposals that could materially impair Meta," Nowak wrote.

Key to Nowak's bull thesis is a potential "MetaClaw" agent, which he said could transform Meta's AI capabilities and lead to a "multi-billion dollar agentic opportunity." Meta has recently acquired Singaporean AI agent company Manus and the AI social network Moltbook. Combined with an updated large language model, Meta could roll out an agentic shopping tool across its various social-media sites, allowing users to purchase products directly on platforms such as Messenger, according to Nowak.

Meta has also shared plans to build automated advertising tools for small and medium-size businesses across its platforms. "The more utility Meta can drive for advertisers, the larger share of budgets it is likely to capturegoing forward," Nowak wrote.

Read on: Why Meta is buying Moltbook, a viral AI social network

Meta has also been embarking on a cost-cutting journey that Nowak said could drive further upside to the stock, "or provide cushion to our base case if ad markets weaken." The company reportedly plans to cut up to 20% of its workforce, which Nowak estimated could save between $3 billion and $10 billion annually, and increase earnings per share by over $1 in 2027.

-Christine Ji

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