A more than 50% rise in oil prices over the past month may be more than just a 'short-lived shock'

By Myra P. Saefong and Isabel Wang

Trump threatens to 'blow up' Iran's power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if no deal is reached

President Donald Trump said the U.S. will destroy Iran's power plants and Kharg Island without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices finished higher Monday, with the global benchmark trading up by 56% for the month and on track for its largest such gain on record, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that began at the end of February pushed energy prices to their highest levels in nearly four years.

Global benchmark Brent crude settled Monday at its highest since July 2022. Its high price is being treated as a spike, but the data tells a different story, said Nigel Green, chief executive officer at deVere Group.

Prices are up close to 60% in a single month, options markets are actively pricing scenarios of $150 oil, and up to 20% of global supply has been disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, he said in emailed commentary Monday. "Those aren't on conditions associated with a short-lived shock."

The front-month Brent crude contract for May delivery (BRNK26) settled at $112.78 a barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.2% for the session. The contract has risen $40.30, or 55.6%, so far in March - putting it on pace for its largest monthly dollar and percentage gain on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The most-active June contract (BRNM26) (BRN00), which becomes the front month on Tuesday after the close, climbed 2% to $107.39 on Monday.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate contracts for May delivery (CL.1) (CLK26) jumped nearly 3.3% to settle at $102.88 a barrel, the first close above $100 since July 2022. For the month, it has surged $35.85, or nearly 54%, putting it on track for its largest monthly dollar gain on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The renewed rise comes after President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to blow up Iran's power plants, oil wells and oil-export hub Kharg Island "if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached" to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz trade route.

Trump also said he was having "serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE REGIME" to end military operations in Iran, in a post on Truth Social.

"Comments from President Trump about seizing Iranian oil and the country's Kharg Island export hub, a build-up of U.S. troops and the involvement of Tehran-backed Houthis in the war all create the impression of a conflict that is escalating rather than drawing to a close," said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

With shipping routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz seeing some risk of disruption, Brent crude oil prices remain "firmly in alarm-bell territory," and are on course for a record monthly gain, Hewson told MarketWatch in emailed commentary on Monday.

The oil market is looking at a potential global loss of 10 million to 14 million barrels per day if the disruptions to the strait persists, in a market where global demand sits just above 100 million barrels per day, said deVere's Green. That's a "that gap cannot be easily filled."

Adding more uncertainty to a diplomatic end to the war, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering extracting almost 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran.

Over the weekend, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined the conflict, launching ballistic missiles at Israel.

This means that the war now stretches beyond the strait, with the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - a crucial chokepoint for global oil trading - involved too, analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, wrote in a note on Sunday.

"In effect, two major corridors of global energy trade are exposed simultaneously, narrowing rerouting options and increasing system-wide supply-chain risk," they said.

Nora Redmond contributed.

-Myra P. Saefong -Isabel Wang

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03-30-26 1528ET