Gold's tumble has created opportunities to buy these stocks at bargain prices

By Tomi Kilgore and Philip van Doorn

The gold miner sector has taken a beating since the Iran war started, but history suggests the selling may be short-lived

The recent sharp selloff in gold miner stocks has created opportunities for investors to buy at bargain prices if the appetite for gold flips back to bullish, as history suggests.

Shares of gold miners have been in the dumps this month, as investors have expressed fears over how the Iran war will tarnish the value of the precious metal. But as famed investor Warren Buffett has said, the time to be greedy is when others are fearful.

The market shocks created by the Iran war have given investors excuses to take profits on gold. Although the precious metal has historically been used as a hedge against inflation, the current market narrative is that inflation expectations fueled by surging oil prices have boosted yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes BX:TMUBMUSD10Y enough to make them attractive relative to gold, which doesn't pay interest.

The higher bond yields have also lifted the dollar versus other currencies. And a rising dollar tends to hurt gold prices, as it lowers import costs - and therefore helps tame inflation.

And as LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist explained, the risk appetite of investors has been dented during the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran. That has sparked a "broad dash for cash" and led many to lock in gains from previous profitable positions to cover losses in other areas of the market.

Gold futures (GC00) were down 16.5% for March in midday trading - the Iran war started on Feb. 28. They are still up 1% so far in 2026, after running up 64.4% in 2025. Meanwhile, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX has tumbled 28.2% in March and is down 3% this year after soaring 152.9% last year.

As J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a recent note to clients, during periods of high market volatility, gold "is not spared from the sell-everything dynamic." But history shows that dynamic tends to be short-lived.

On Thursday, gold futures were 3.7% and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF shed 3.6%.

The J.P. Morgan analysts said that eventually the idea that inflation induced by higher oil prices could slow the global economy and make central banks cautious about raising interest rates, will flip the backdrop for gold, and therefore gold miner stocks, back to bullish.

With that in mind, the selloff in gold and gold-miner stocks has created opportunities for investors to get greedy on some bargain-priced stocks.

As of Wednesday's close, GDX had a weighted forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9, as calculated by LSEG, compared with a forward P/E of 20 for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY. These are stock prices divided by consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimates for the companies among analysts working for brokerage and research firms polled by LSEG, weighted by market capitalization.

So GDX trades at a cheap valuation relative to the broad U.S. stock market, especially if you buy into the notion that the eventual end to the Iran conflict will lead to a recovery for gold prices.

Here are the fund's 10 largest holdings, with price changes, P/E ratios and dividend yields:

                      Company  Price change from Feb. 27 through March 25  2026 price change through March 25  2025 price change  Forward P/E  Dividend yield  % of GDX portfolio 
          Agnico Eagle Mines                                       -22.4%                               14.2%               107%         13.7           0.92%               12.1% 
                     Newmont                                       -21.9%                                1.7%               168%          9.6           1.02%               10.7% 
              Barrick Mining                                       -22.1%                               -9.8%               168%          9.8           4.25%                7.7% 
               Franco-Nevada                                       -15.2%                               13.6%                68%         26.4           0.74%                5.2% 
           AngloGold Ashanti                                       -29.9%                                5.0%               269%          8.6           3.98%                5.0% 
     Wheaton Precious Metals                                       -23.7%                                5.1%                99%         22.3           0.63%                4.9% 
                Kinross Gold                                       -20.4%                                3.8%               190%          8.9           0.54%                4.7% 
                 Gold Fields                                       -27.8%                               -2.6%               231%          7.7           3.55%                4.4% 
         Pan American Silver                                       -24.0%                                0.0%               145%         11.8           1.38%                3.2% 
                 Alamos Gold                                       -21.7%                                9.2%               100%         14.1           0.38%                2.6% 
                                                                                                                                                            Sources: VanEck, LSEG 

Click the tickers for more about each stock or fund.

Read: A guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page

Don't miss: This stock's downgrade shows the Iran war hitting home

-Tomi Kilgore -Philip van Doorn

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03-26-26 1336ET