Hundreds of ships remain trapped at the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran decides which can pass

By Claudia Assis

Traffic through the key waterway is increasingly conditional and has been limited to about two ships per day, compared with about 100 previously

Only select ships, depending on their communication with Iran, are making their way through the Strait of Hormuz, pictured here in late February.

A few ships have transited through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, but hundreds of vessels remain trapped, as Iran dictates which ships are allowed to pass safely, and as a pattern of preferential treatment has emerged.

Consultants at Kpler said that on average, two oil tankers a day are making their way through the key waterway, compared with about 100 a day before the start of the conflict with Iran. There are 400 oil tankers still trapped, Kpler said.

The thinned traffic through the strait "is overwhelmingly Iranian," and Iran appears to be allowing select vessels to transit the strait after verification, analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a note to clients.

"In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political understandings with Tehran," the analysts wrote.

Some vessels have exited the strait after making a brief diversion through a channel between two islands off Iran's coast, Larak and Qeshm, and hewing close to Iran's coast.

"This is not a standard route for vessels and could reflect a process designed to confirm vessel ownership and cargo, enabling passage for ships that are not affiliated to the U.S. or its allies," the J.P. Morgan analysts said.

According to reports, ships including some bound for India and carrying cooking gas have passed through after their governments held talks with Iran and secured their safe passage.

Also read: U.S. doesn't need help in Iran, Trump says, as NATO members rebuff plea and oil prices climb

About a fifth of the world's crude oil and crude products passes through the strait in times of peace, and on-land export options have been limited for decades.

President Donald Trump has urged U.S. allies to step in to reopen the sea passage, but the response has been lukewarm. Promised U.S. Navy escorts have not yet materialized as the war entered its 18th day.

U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, a Royal Navy organization, has received 21 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman from the start of the war through Tuesday, including 16 reports of attacks.

Most of the oil making its way through Hormuz is headed to Asian countries, with China the largest importer, followed by India, Japan and South Korea.

The standstill has affected container ships as well, with shipping companies opting for longer, costlier routes to avoid danger. U.S. ports are dealing with heightened uncertainty, and shipping companies are seeing an increase in the price of bunker fuel, which is used to power ship engines.

Several large crude-importing countries, including China, India, Pakistan and Turkey, reportedly have opened talks with Tehran or taken steps to secure passage for their vessels.

Iran generally views these countries "as neutral or friendly, giving them the best chance of preferential access," the J.P. Morgan analysts said.

In contrast, Western-aligned crude-importing countries such as to Japan, South Korea, the U.K., France and Italy "are largely coordinating with the U.S. and exploring naval escort options rather than negotiating directly with Tehran," the analysts said.

New York-traded crude-oil futures (CL00) rose more than 1% on Tuesday and have risen more than 40% so far this month as the conflict has shaken global markets with no end in sight.

-Claudia Assis

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03-17-26 1414ET