Chevron's stock surges to a record as U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran spark an oil rally

By Claudia Assis

Chevron's stock neared $190

Chevron's stock closed at record high on Monday.

Investors leaned onto U.S. energy stocks on Monday, with the widening conflict in the Middle East boosting shares of major U.S. exploration and production and integrated-energy companies, in particular Chevron, whose stock zoomed to a record high.

The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, counterattacks by Iran and calls for regime change have disrupted global crude supplies and raised fears of price spikes.

A year ago, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted a drop in Brent crude prices to about $66 a barrel in 2026 due to a combination of weaker demand and an increase in inventories.

After this weekend's attacks, however, there's brewing concern that Brent crude could be headed to $100 a barrel. Analysts at Citi said they expect it to trade in a range of at least $80 to $90 a barrel this week, with prices pulling back to around $70 a barrel after any de-escalation of hostilities. An internal Iran conflict or regional conflagrations, meanwhile, could see "oil higher for longer."

Chevron's stock (CVX) ended at an all-time high Monday, its first new record since Nov. 15, 2022, when it closed at $188.05.

Investors were gravitating toward large-cap, bellwether stocks, Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar said. He sees markets favoring Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) along with Chevron "until the longer-term situation clears up."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has some capacity to replace Iran's 3 million to 3.3 million barrels of oil a day, but Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy markets, magnifies the challenge, Kumar said.

Analysts at Piper Sandler noted that U.S. energy stocks were already benefiting from wider trends around portfolio rebalances and a flight from tech stocks. The State Street Energy Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLE has gained more than 25% this year, far outstripping the broader equity market.

Conversations with investors "have suggested a desire to fade the rally on both commodity fundamentals and valuation," but the attacks are likely to keep boosting both commodity prices and energy stocks and reducing the risk of oil-price weakness in 2026, the Piper Sandler analysts said.

They also had ConocoPhillips and Chevron on their list, saying the two offer "the strongest combination of leading oil leverage and minimal regional risk."

Exxon, on the other hand, is more exposed to production risk on the Arabian Peninsula, including fears about production of liquified natural gas in Qatar, the Piper Sandler analysts said.

At Morgan Stanley, analyst Devin McDermott said: "We recommend sticking with what's working - remain defensive with a quality bias amid this period of heightened volatility," and continuing to favor larger names such as Chevron and Exxon.

-Claudia Assis

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03-02-26 1758ET