Crypto winter hits Robinhood's sales and stock, but CEO sees prediction-market 'super cycle'

By Bill Peters

Robinhood touts trading related to sports and the government shutdown, and says private-market investing will be a bigger theme this year

Robinhood reported quarterly results on Tuesday.

Caution on crypto trading weighed on Robinhood's fourth-quarter sales and stock, but executives at the trading app downplayed the impact and talked up the prospect of a "super cycle" in the prediction markets that allow its users to bet on things like sports and politics.

Shares sank 11% on Wednesday. The stock is still up 36.1% over the past 12 months.

Robinhood's (HOOD) sales for the quarter - at $1.28 billion - were still up 27% year over year, the company said on Tuesday. But they missed FactSet estimates for $1.35 billion.

Revenue from crypto trades slid 38% during the quarter, as appetites waned for volatile assets like bitcoin and for risk overall, amid broader concerns about the economy. But a jump in demand for options, stocks, prediction markets and Robinhood's Gold subscription made up for the pressure in crypto.

The company, which has become popular with retail investors, earned 66 cents a share during the fourth quarter. That was above the estimates of 63 cents.

Robinhood said it expects operating expenses, along with share-based compensation, of $2.6 billion to $2.725 billion this year - an 18% increase from a year ago. Those expenses will go toward investing and expanding the business, as well as last year's acquisitions of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp and the portfolio management platform TradePMR.

Robinhood reported the results as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain mired in a "crypto winter" and as the company tries to become a hub for an array of financial services that it can sell to new and existing customers. Those results also came amid a proliferation of sports betting and the rise of prediction-market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi - sites that have attracted interest as well as bigger legal and ethical concerns.

"We're not getting distracted by short-term fluctuations and what bitcoin or other assets are doing," CEO Vlad Tenev said during Robinhood's earnings call on Tuesday. He argued that the technology behind bitcoin would eventually be used as the basis for more trading and other services.

Tenev said the current moment marks the beginning of a "prediction market super cycle." A derivatives-related segment of Robinhood launched a prediction-market hub last year. Robinhood's prediction-market volumes more than doubled in the fourth quarter, with more than 12 billion contracts traded in 2025.

Tenev said that even as the NFL season ends, other things - from U.S. politics to the Olympics to the World Cup - were driving interest in that segment.

"So in January, for instance, NBA contracts surpassed NFL in trading activity on our platform, and you're also seeing relevant non-sports contracts generating significant volume," he said.

"For example, in the week after the NFL season ended, the government-shutdown contract on our prediction-markets platform was driving significant volume," he continued.

Elsewhere, Robinhood has tried to launch more services for active trading, retirement savings, banking and private-market investing and private-company stock tokens. Tenev said Robinhood Ventures will invest in private assets, which could be packaged in registered funds and offered to retail traders in the U.S. He said private markets could become bigger than prediction markets.

"A big part of 2026 will be seizing the tokenization opportunity, which we think is massive," he said.

-Bill Peters

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02-11-26 1122ET