Gold's massive outperformance leaves bitcoin looking more attractive over the long term, says JPMorgan strategist

By Jules Rimmer

Bitcoin could reach $266,000, analyst says

Having touched $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin almost broke below $70,000 in Thursday trading.

A JPMorgan strategist made a contrarian call, saying bitcoin now looks more appealing than gold for the long term after the surge in the yellow metal's price.

Given the present fervor for gold, and the corresponding aversion to bitcoin, this call from JPMorgan's global markets strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou is quite the take. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has tumbled more than 40% from its October peak while gold (GC00) climbed by roughly a third over that timeframe as investors began to question bitcoin's credibility as catastrophe insurance and a store of value.

The fall in bitcoin, which extended as low as $70,039 in early Thursday trading, has now pushed its price considerably below its estimated cost of production that JPMorgan calculates around $87,000. (Panigirtzoglou does add that if this pushes out unprofitable miners from the market then the production costs may naturally adjust lower).

Spot ETFs continue to suffer outflows, suggesting negative sentiment is widespread from both retail and institutional investors, he said.

3 and 6 month rolling bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio

Also important is the rise in gold's volatility.

The JPMorgan note highlights that recent price action has led to the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio drifting to 1.5, a record low. Panigirtzoglou theorizes, on a volatility-adjusted basis, that "bitcoin's market cap would have to rise to $266,000 to match the private sector's investment in gold (around $8 trillion excluding central banks)."

Panigirtzoglou acknowledges this is an unrealistic target this year, but it illustrates the upside potential over the long term once the present negative sentiment dissipates and "once bitcoin is again perceived equally attractive to gold as a potential hedge to a catastrophic scenario."

-Jules Rimmer

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02-05-26 0440ET