U.S. stock futures fall after bitcoin's weekend drop, as gold and silver's sell-off may be bleeding into other markets

By Mike Murphy

Crude prices plunge 4% amid U.S.-Iran tensions

Ice floats along the Hudson River along the Manhattan shoreline over the weekend, following last week's winter storm.

U.S. stock futures sank Sunday, after a weekend slide by bitcoin and Friday's massive sell-off in precious metals capped a tumultuous first month of 2026.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were down about 340 points, or 0.7%, in volatile trading late Sunday. S&P 500 futures (ES00) were down about 1.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) were off 1.5%. All three were recently trading at session lows.

Gold (GC00) and silver futures (SI00) gave up strong early-session gains and turned negative late Sunday after the wipeout on Friday that erased a combined $7.4 trillion in market value, as gold fell 11% and silver slid 31%, a sharp reversal from their record-setting gains over the past year.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continued its slide over the weekend, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since last April, and was slumping below the $76,000 level late Sunday. The crypto plunged around 10% on Saturday and is down nearly 30% over the past three months.

"Given the build up of positioning and leverage involved, [Friday's gold and silver] sell-off is bleeding into other markets," Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said in a Sunday note. "Effectively, a deleveraging is happening, forcing traders to sell other assets to cover losses on their losing precious metals positions. That's contributing to the sell-off in stocks and probably contributed to bitcoin's plunge over the weekend."

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1), the U.S. benchmark, fell more than 4% on Sunday, after spiking to a six-month high in January. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - the group of major oil producers known as OPEC+ - reaffirmed their decision late last year to continue to pause production hikes in March. The oil market has been on edge after the U.S. arrested Venezuela's president in early January and effectively took control of that nation's oil industry, and as President Donald Trump has threatened new military action against Iran. Trump on Saturday said the U.S. and Iran were "seriously talking," while on Sunday Iran's supreme leader warned that any attack by the U.S. would result in a "regional war." Brent crude (BRN00), the global benchmark, was also down around 4%.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, which compares the greenback to a basket of rival currencies, ticked higher Sunday. That came after the dollar fell 2.1% in January, hitting its lowest level since February 2022 on Tuesday. The buck is down more than 10% over the past year.

"The market is being forced to reassess the dollar just as a new Fed chair begins to articulate his framework," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a weekend note. "From here, the evolution of the dollar move will be telling," he said, as the dollar "is no longer just reflecting macro conditions. It is actively shaping them, tightening financial conditions abroad, influencing earnings translation, and quietly forcing portfolio decisions across every major asset class."

U.S. stocks fell Friday, but all three major indexes ended the month with gains. The Dow DJIA ended January up 1.7%, its ninth consecutive month of gains and its longest winning streak since 2018, while the S&P 500 SPX rose 1.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq COMP advanced 0.9%.

Read more: The 'January barometer' for stocks comes with a big asterisk this year

Wall Street will be bracing for more tech earnings this week, following quarterly reports last week that saw Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) fall, while Apple (AAPL) stayed flat despite record-breaking results and Meta (META) soared after beating analysts' estimates. This week, Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) will report, along with Amazon.com (AMZN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR) and Qualcomm (QCOM), among others.

Investors will also be digesting Friday's announcement by Trump that he will nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chief. Ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's independence and future monetary policy "is likely to lead to near-term consternation for the U.S. stock market, with better clarity - and likely positive reaction - to emerge soon after he assumes the seat in May," Wedbush analyst Seth Basham wrote in a note Sunday.

More: Warsh pick doesn't end talk that Powell could stay on to defend the Fed's independence

Basham also foresees the end of the "Fed put," or monetary-policy intervention, under Warsh. "The Powell era's focus on suppressing volatility could give way to market discipline, where liquidity is no longer guaranteed outside of a crisis, but Fed credibility increases," he wrote. "A successful pivot would be positive for Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, but negative for gold and silver."

-Mike Murphy

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-01-26 2259ET