Gold's searing run halted, silver ends below $100 as Warsh nomination to Fed hits dollar debasement trade

By Barbara Kollmeyer and Myra P. Saefong

Pullback in metals likely tied to an 'oversold bounce' in the U.S. dollar index, analyst says

Gold prices pulled back from record highs Friday.

The brakes were pumped on the breathless rally for gold and other precious metals Friday as investors weighed the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair.

Traders pointed to President Donald Trump's pick of Warsh as Fed chair as the catalyst for the bounce in the U.S. dollar Friday, said Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest. And the pullback in metals was likely tied to an "oversold bounce" in the U.S. dollar index, which recently has had a high negative correlation with gold, Armbruster told MarketWatch.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was up 0.8% in Friday dealings, although it was still poised for a weekly loss of around 0.6%. The greenback has been under pressure this year after getting battered in 2025 - the opposite of precious metals, which investors have been piling into.

Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y were also mostly higher along with the dollar, as analysts say Warsh would be less supportive of lower interest rates than other major candidates to run the central bank. Lower rates can be supportive for non-interest-yielding gold.

Against that backdrop Friday, dollar-denominated prices of gold for April delivery (GCJ26) tumbled 11%, or $609.70, to settle at $4,745.10 an ounce, marking its first down session in nine. On Thursday, the most-active (GC00) April contract settled at a fresh record of $5,354.80 an ounce.

Read: Investors aren't scared of record gold and silver prices. Wall Street's price targets are struggling to keep up.

Silver (SI00), meanwhile, dropped back down through the milestone $100 level, with the March contract (SIH26) losing 31%, or $35.90, to settle at $78.53 an ounce after closing above $114 an ounce on Thursday.

Read: Silver marks biggest drop in 46 years, with 'every man and his dog rushing for the exit'

Thursday was a volatile day across markets, with tech under pressure, but copper prices soared. Comex copper for March delivery (HGH26) rose 4.7% to settle at $6.20 a pound, its highest finish dating back to 1972, but it fell 4.5% to $5.92 on Friday.

Other metals also sold off sharply on Friday, with platinum futures (PL00) down 19% to settle $2,121.60 an ounce and palladium (PA00) dropping nearly 16% to $1,703.10 an ounce.

"The move away from the dollar 'debasement' trade, which was previously showing signs of becoming entrenched, was something of a surprise to investors who have been actively seeking haven alternatives," said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

Investors should, however, take care to not pin too many hawkish hopes on Warsh, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Commerzbank. Trump will likely persist with his demands for interest-rate cuts and attacks on the Fed if Warsh fails to toe the line, she told clients in a note.

"We therefore continue to see a high probability that the central bank will yield to pressure to at least some extent and cut interest rates more than is currently priced in by the market. This suggests that the gold price will remain well supported. The extent of the correction also suggests that market participants were simply waiting for an opportunity to take profits after the rapid price rise," she said.

'Extreme volatility is a given' for gold and silver.Michael Armbruster, Altavest

Altavest's Armbruster said that while he believes both gold and silver are likely to move even higher from here, "extreme volatility is a given."

Friday's retreat from session highs is a prime example, he said. "We don't make price projections for gold or silver, but the trend is up and should continue until price lowers demand."

"We are bullish across the board in the metals complex through the end of 2026 at a minimum," he said.

-Barbara Kollmeyer -Myra P. Saefong

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