Gold is approaching $5,000, and 'unavoidable uncertainty' means it could go higher

By Barbara Kollmeyer

RBC strategist sees paths for gold surprising even higher

Gold could see numerous peaks in 2026, depending on uncertainties, says RBC.

The big lesson so far this year for gold investors is that there's no limit to fresh highs as investors navigate uncertainty and geopolitics.

That's according to Christopher Louney, RBC's global head of commodity strategy, as the price of gold (GC00) marched steadily toward a fresh high on Friday of $4,926 an ounce, briefly reaching $4,970 in Asian trading hours. Gold closed at a fresh record on Thursday of $4,908.80 an ounce, and another positive session would mark its fourth in a row.

"While the extent of the gold rally may cool, the lesson this week is that uncertainty is an unavoidable trigger for gold. If we are to take any lesson from 2025, it's that the number of peaks can still increase, especially when investors are looking for a hedge against uncertainties they struggle to price elsewhere," Louney wrote in a note to clients published Thursday.

Gold has gained 7% this week and 13% so far this year, while stock investors have been nursing a tough start to 2026. The S&P 500 SPX has gained just 1% this year.

Investors seeking a haven from an uncertain geopolitical climate have had plenty of rationale. The year kicked off with a U.S. incursion into Venezuela, tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a spat between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland that escalated into tariff threats by President Donald Trump.

While Trump backed down from tariffs on Europe and said he wouldn't take Greenland by force, "we are reminded that uncertainty can take many forms," said Louney.

"This week we also were reminded of the risks of a 'sell U.S.' trade, and we note even a small 'sell U.S.' drip out of other assets is implicitly gold-positive," he said.

Read: Trump's tariff reversal on Greenland sparked a market rally - but the violent swings in stocks is a warning

The analyst said RBC expects gold to stick to a range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce this year, likely finishing the year even higher and in line with their own "high scenario prices, but note that there could be paths even higher in a real risk-off scenario."

In December, RBC forecast the commodity would reach an average of $4,600 per ounce and move higher to $5,100 per ounce in 2027.

After a blistering rally in 2025, which marked its biggest annual gain since 1979, gold's strong start to this year inspired Goldman Sachs to lift its end-of-year forecast for gold to $5,400 from $4,900 an ounce on Thursday. The bank said an upside risk they had expected - private sector buying - was under way, adding to a massive buying spree by central banks that has driven the price up from $1,800 in January 2023.

Also marking its best annual performance since 1979, silver prices (SI00) were also set to take out Thursday's fresh high of $95.87 per troy ounce, with futures up 2.3% to $98.63 per ounce on Friday.

Industrial metals were also climbing, with platinum prices (PL00) up over 4% and palladium (PA00) up 2.8%.

Read: This contrarian trader says silver has peaked - and this week's action proves it

-Barbara Kollmeyer

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01-23-26 0720ET