Netflix just boosted its case to win Warner Bros. Here's why.

By Lukas I. Alpert

Netflix beats quarterly expectations amid fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, suggesting it's in a position of strength, not necessity

Netflix's quarterly earnings come as the company seeks to finalize a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming businesses.

Netflix late Tuesday beat expectations for profit and revenue in the fourth quarter, pointing to solid subscriber gains and growth of its ad business, and strengthening its argument for acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery.

The earnings report comes against the backdrop of Netflix's (NFLX) fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) studio and streaming businesses.

Analysts had been looking for any signs of slowing growth in Netflix's numbers, which might have suggested that the bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was being driven by a sense of necessity rather than coming from a position of strength.

Tuesday's results, however, showed that Netflix is continuing to grow at a steady clip on its own and that the push to M&A - something Netflix had previously eschewed - was not necessarily required to move forward.

"In 2025, we met or beat all of our financial targets," Netflix's Co-Chief Executive Greg Peters said on a call with analysts following the results. "There is tons more room to grow ahead of us."

The streaming giant reported net income of $2.42 billion, compared to $1.87 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Analysts had estimated net income of $2.39 billion, according FactSet.

Earnings per share came in at 56 cents, the company reported. Analysts polled by FactSet had predicted EPS of 55 cents. The company instituted a 10-to-1 stock split in November.

Revenue rose to $12.05 billion, up from $10.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. That came in slightly above the $11.97 billion that analysts had predicted.

The company forecast revenue growth of between 12% and 14% for 2026, with an operating margin of 31.5%. Netflix also said it expects its ad revenue - which expanded two and a half times in 2025 - to double again in 2026.

But it also forecast rising costs as it expects to spend more on producing content and rights to sports and other live events this year. That drove the stock down 5% in after-hours trading, despite Netflix's strong results. The company's stock has fallen 34% since hitting an all-time high last June, a decline that accelerated since Netflix began its pursuit of Warner Bros. in the fall.

"The stock is derated quite a bit but it's getting to a really attractive valuation," said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.

"Ad revenue is really starting to drive an acceleration in total revenue growth," Belton said, and if Netflix can continue its membership growth and acquires Warner Bros., "I think it still strikes me as a pretty interesting multi-year story. But investors are probably going to have to continue to be patient with Netflix's stock price."

Netflix and Warner Bros. announced a deal worth $82.7 billion in December, but the outcome remains uncertain as Paramount Skydance (PSKY) tries to convince shareholders to accept its hostile bid for the entirety of Warner Bros. for $108 billion.

Earlier Tuesday, Netflix announced that it had amended its bid from a mix of cash and stock to an all-cash offer. Some analysts said the more robust offer was a reflection of Netflix's confidence in its revenue expansion and cash flow.

Others have raised concerns that Netflix's acquisition effort might be driven, in part, by worries about a slowdown in subscriber and revenue growth.

The company, which stopped reporting its subscriber figures last year, said it had surpassed 325 million global subscribers during the fourth quarter.

Netflix has touted the development of its advertising business as a key for future revenue growth.

Netflix's ad strategy is two-pronged: first to reduce churn - or the steady departure of subscribers who cancel the service - by offering a lower-priced option that includes ads, and second to drive revenue through the sale of ads.

Netflix's ad business remains relatively new, so while revenue from the ads themselves still represents a small portion of the company's overall business, it is expected to grow steadily in the coming quarters.

In late 2022, Netflix added a lower-cost, ad-supported subscription tier, which has been a slowly building contributor to subscriber growth. The lower-priced package - which costs $7.99 a month, versus $24.99 a month for a premium ad-free package - has enabled Netflix to attract a large number of customers who may have been put off by the higher price point.

The company has also been expanding its offerings in live sporting events, which are expected to be a significant driver of audience going forward.

Last year, Netflix set ambitious internal growth targets of doubling its revenue by 2030 and reaching a market capitalization of $1 trillion. The company's current market valuation is around $400 billion.

On its earnings call, Netflix management said they still viewed those targets as achievable regardless of whether the Warner Bros. deal closes successfully or not.

-Lukas I. Alpert

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-20-26 2018ET