Here's everything investors need to know about -2-

   Market balance                                                                     31   -82   -254    -89  -115  -200   -167  -230           -140            -59 
   Market balance ex-gov't stock sales                                                32   -83   -255    -91  -117  -201   -168  -201           -141            -60 
   Price average (USD/oz)                                                           15.7  16.2  20.55  25.14  21.8  23.4  28.29    45          68.25             57 
   Source: Silver Institute, HSBC forecasts; Note: figures in millions of ounces 

Futures traders are long

Speculators in the futures market remain overwhelmingly long silver, according to weekly data on trader positioning published by the CFTC. Meanwhile, short interest remains notably low, HSBC's Steel noted.

Options traders are betting on big gains

Options traders have also taken an interest in silver.

RJO Futures' Haberkorn pointed out that open interest in out-of-the-money strikes on silver options has surged.

Each contract controls 5,000 ounces of silver. At Friday's prices, that would mean these contracts alone have a notional value of more than $182 million, by MarketWatch's calculations.

That doesn't necessarily mean silver will make it to $125 by April. Signs of extreme bullishness among speculators often suggest that a rally might be due for a pullback, HSBC's Steel said.

But, according to Haberkorn, it appears a handful of investors are making big bets that the price surge will continue.

Moving averages

In a sign of how historically dramatic the rally in silver has been, futures prices have reached levels above some widely followed trend trackers that haven't been seen since the 1980s.

Silver futures traded earlier this week 46.7% above the 50-day moving average, a metric many on Wall Street use as a guide to the short-term trend. The last time silver futures traded that far above that technical level, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data, was April 1987 - at a time when the U.S. dollar DXY was sinking, inflation was rising and the Iran-Iraq War was escalating.

Futures also traded as much as 105.9% above the 200-day moving average, which is seen as a key long-term trend tracker. The last time that happened was in January and February of 1980, when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market.

Silver prices had another strong week, rising more than 11%, even if they ended on a down note. Futures for March delivery, the most active contract, settled at $88.537 an ounce on Friday, off $3.81, or 4.1%.

Myra P. Saefong, Tomi Kilgore and Mike DeStefano contributed.

-Joseph Adinolfi

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-17-26 0830ET