The Supreme Court could rule on Trump's tariffs as soon as Friday. Here's how it could play out.

By Victor Reklaitis

One key will be whether the court's ruling is a clean decision, or if some IEEPA tariffs are permitted

Demonstrators protest on Nov. 5 outside of the U.S. Supreme Court's building in Washington as justices heard arguments over whether a wide swath of President Donald Trump's tariffs are lawful.

The U.S. Supreme Court has indicated that it could release opinions on Friday at around 10 a.m. Eastern time - meaning the justices' decision in a crucial tariff case may be arriving soon.

The court has promised to provide an expedited ruling in the tariff case, leading to expectations that a decision could come this month rather than in an end-of-term release of opinions in June.

It's impossible to gauge if a tariff decision will come Friday, but it certainly could, and a ruling should hit by the end of the month if it doesn't arrive this week, said Chris Krueger, an analyst at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, in a note.

The Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, is addressing the issue after lower courts found that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to justify his many country-specific tariffs. Opponents of Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs have emphasized that the law doesn't explicitly mention tariffs in its text, and that no president has ever used IEEPA to impose tariffs.

The likelihood of the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump's tariffs dropped in the wake of oral arguments on Nov. 5 over the matter, as some conservative justices' questions for Trump's attorney were viewed as especially skeptical. One betting market, Kalshi, recently was giving a 31% chance for such a ruling, while Polymarket put the chances at 23%,

One key will be whether the high court's ruling is a "clean decision," or if some IEEPA tariffs are permitted, said TD Cowen's Krueger.

Another important factor will be what justices say about possible refunds of tariffs. Krueger noted that's crucial for importers who have paid the levies, as well as for the bond market, given that rating agency S&P maintained its rating for U.S. sovereign debt with a stable outlook in part because of incoming tariff revenue.

Krueger also stressed that his firm believes the Trump administration could recreate a number of its tariffs within days using other laws if its IEEPA tariffs get struck down.

Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of the Trump administration's many country-specific tariffs, while also saying administration officials are ready to maintain the levies through other avenues. Bessent's comments match up with forecasts that Trump could respond to a court loss by switching to invoking authorities granted in sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, as well as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Kelsey Christensen, a trade attorney at law firm Clark Hill, said she and her colleagues have been working with clients ahead of the Supreme Court's decision to determine their exposure to IEEPA tariffs compared to other types of tariffs.

"When companies have a clear picture of their IEEPA exposure and the current status of their imports, we are able to focus on different possible outcomes following a decision from the Supreme Court and explain where procedural uncertainty remains," Christensen told MarketWatch in an email. The scenarios they're discussing include the status quo continuing, as well as potentially filing lawsuits to request refunds.

Trump, for his part, said in a social-media post on Tuesday that U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP have been hitting new highs thanks to "MISTER TARIFF," referring to his import taxes.

"PRAY THAT THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT ALLOWS OUR COUNTRY TO CONTINUE ITS UNPRECEDENTED MARCH TOWARD UNPARALLELED GREATNESS! BOTH OUR NATIONAL AND FINANCIAL SECURITY HAVE NEVER BEEN STRONGER!" Trump wrote.

-Victor Reklaitis

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