Big-name strategist Ed Yardeni said gold would top $4,000 by year-end. He was right. Here's what he foresees in 2026.

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Yardeni is aiming even higher for gold next year

Yardeni Research says get ready for even higher gold prices in 2026.

Stocks are set for a muted session on the last full day of trading before the Christmas break, even if it's a busy one data wise.

We're also one day away from the official start of the Santa Rally period - defined by the Stock Trader's Almanac as the last five trading days of the current year and first two of the new year (see below chart for more). Stocks could definitely use a boost, considering December has been a relatively dull one for the S&P 500 SPX, up just 1.6%.

That's in contrast to another stellar month for precious metals, with gold climbing 9% and silver up 36% in December, and another session of record highs seemingly on tap for those commodities Tuesday.

That brings us to our call of the day from Yardeni Research, which has just raised the bar, ahem, on gold's outlook next year.

"When the price of an ounce of gold rose above $3,000 at the start of this year, we projected it would reach $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of next year," Yardeni, the global investment strategy and asset allocation advice firm founded by its president Ed Yardeni, told clients in a fresh note.

"This evening, the price rose above $4,500. We are raising our year-end 2026 target to $6,000. We still expect to see $10,000 hit by the end of the decade," they added.

That new target seems to top one of the most optimistic out there - JPMorgan's forecast, for example, is for a $5,055/oz gold high by the end of next year.

Yardeni reminds us that the S&P 500 and gold appear to be short-term inversely correlated, but follow the same upward trend in the longer term, which explains their even more bullish forecast looking out a few years.

"The price of gold is rapidly approaching the S&P 500 stock price index. If the S&P 500 reaches 10,000 by the end of 2029, as we expect, gold should trade at $10,000 if our trend analysis is correct," they said.

The Yardeni Research team said they turned bullish on gold in early 2024, when the commodity pushed to a new record above $2,000 - it has led the rally for the precious metals space since then. At the time, they held the belief that central banks were boosting gold purchases after the U.S. and EU froze Russia's international reserves.

As of late, geopolitical concerns - tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and fresh attacks on Russian ports by Ukraine - have been credited for some of gold's march higher. Some also say its strength is being driven by fears central banks will print money to inflate away their debt, to which Yardeni agrees.

Yardeni notes gold is lagging silver by 139% this year, platinum by 133% and palladium by 95%, but said this is unlikely to be linked to a rebound in global economic activity, as increases for basic metals linked to industrial production have seen less dramatic gains.

"We suspect that the precious metals prices might be signaling recent concerns about an excessively stimulative combination of monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. next year," the research house said.

"Even if the Fed stops cutting the federal-funds rate during the first four months of 2026, the Fed is committed to buying about $40 billion per month in Treasury bills through April," said Yardeni, citing a note from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Adding to that are expectations that many U.S. households may get $1,000-$2,000 refunds from the government in 2026, with Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent also suggesting $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks sent out, the researchers noted. In short, the federal budget deficit could balloon in the first four months of next year, sparking higher bond yields and a stock market pullback, said Yardeni.

The markets

U.S. stock-indices SPX DJIA COMP opened little changed post economic data, while gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) headed for more records and the dollar DXY drops.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d     1m      YTD      1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6878.49    1.15%  1.66%   16.95%   13.88% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     23,428.83  1.37%  1.75%   21.33%   16.96% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.152      0.70   15.20   -42.40   -43.70 
   Gold                                                                 4511.5     4.09%  9.14%   70.94%   71.58% 
   Oil                                                                  57.82      2.01%  -1.82%  -19.55%  -16.87% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

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The buzz

Consumer spending and business investment on AI helped the economy grow 4.3% in the third quarter, on an annualized basis, versus 3% expectations, marking the biggest gain for the economy in two years.

Durable goods orders dropped 2.2% in October, led by transportation equipment orders, versus a 0.7% rise in September. Industrial production for October fell 0.1% and rose 0.2% in November.

The Conference Board's December consumer confidence index will be released at 10 a.m.

U.S. regulators approved Novo Nordisk's (NVO) GLP-1 weight-loss pill -a first that could challenge Wegovy and Eli Lilly's (LLY) dominant injections. Novo shares are jumping and Eli Lilly shares are slipping.

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The chart

The Santa Claus rally period starts on Christmas Eve this year, and it seems a lot is at stake. The chart from Dow Jones Market Data above shows how the Santa Claus rally has largely delivered a nice boost for the S&P 500 in years past. On average, the index has gained 1.26% and closed higher 76% of the time since 1950 for that seven-day stretch. However, for the last two Santa Claus runs, the index has fallen, and another drop this year would mark a third. That would mark a first for the Santa Claus rally period as according to data stretching back to 1950, it has never fallen in three consecutive years, notes Dow Jones Market Data.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

   Ticker  Security name 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   NVO     Novo Nordisk 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   GME     GameStop 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   INFY    Infosys 
   RKLB    Rocket Lab 
   AMZN    Amazon 
   AAPL    Apple 

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-Barbara Kollmeyer

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-23-25 0932ET