Trump stops offshore wind projects. 'The pause could last weeks to months,' analysts warn.

By Victor Reklaitis

'While we believe these latest pauses will be challenged in court, we expect refreshed concerns around the projects,' other analysts say

President Donald Trump's dislike of wind power dates to his costly and unsuccessful legal fight against the offshore wind farm that was built near his golf course in Aberdeenshire in Scotland, where Trump is shown playing in July.

The Trump administration's pause for all big offshore wind farms under construction in the U.S. has left analysts warning about significant long-term pain for a considerable period.

"Developers and states with offshore wind commitments may try to pursue preliminary injunctions against the suspensions while also working with the Trump administration to resolve stated concerns," said analysts at ClearView Energy Partners in a note. "Even so, the pause could last weeks to months, imposing significant costs on developers who had been eyeing completion within the next two years."

The decision hits five projects: Dominion Energy's (D) Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Equinor's (EQNR) Empire Wind 1 in New York; Iberdrola (ES:IBE) (IBDRY) unit Avangrid's Vineyard Wind 1 in Massachusetts; Orsted's (DK:ORSTED) (DNNGY) Sunrise Wind in New York; and the Danish company's Revolution Wind in Rhode Island and Connecticut, where Eversource Energy (ES) is involved as a contractor.

Dominion's stock gained 1.6% on Tuesday after falling 4% on Monday in the wake of the Trump administration's decision, while Eversource shares rose 0.5% after a 2% drop in the prior session. Orsted's ADRs advanced 0.3% following a dive of 13% on Monday.

Equinor's and Iberdrola's stocks each rose more than 1% after drops of 1% on Monday.

Trump's Department of the Interior announced Monday that it's pausing the leases for all large-scale offshore wind projects under construction "due to national security risks identified by the Department of War in recently completed classified reports," using the administration's preferred name for the Defense Department. The announcement is "a major setback" for the wind industry FAN, but it also "strongly comports with the president's fervent and frequent attacks against wind energy," ClearView's analysts said.

From MarketWatch's archives (May 2024): Trump pledges to stop wind energy. Here's what may be ahead for the sector.

Monday's announcement "does not surprise us and validates our ongoing concerns given the Trump administration's strong opposition to offshore wind," said analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets in a note. A "material overhang" for Dominion's and Eversource's shares is likely to continue in the near term until the companies' projects reach their commercial operation dates, which are expected by the end of 2026, they added.

"While we believe these latest pauses will be challenged in court, we expect refreshed concerns around the projects," the KeyBanc analysts also said. They said Eversource has had difficulty quantifying its exposure to Revolution Wind because of the structure of its contract with Orsted, while Dominion's project in Virginia, on the other hand, is a regulated project that is eligible for recovery of certain costs and is already partially reflected in rates in that state. So the KeyBanc analysts expect both stocks to be pressured, but they were surprised by the bigger drop in Dominion's shares on Monday, they said.

-Victor Reklaitis

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