CoreWeave and Nebius shares rebound. Were debt fears too extreme?

By Emily Bary

Micron's earnings report is lifting AI stocks in general, but a Seaport analyst also wonders if investors have been reacting too severely to debt concerns

Nebius shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks.

With a bearish call on Nvidia's stock and a neutral view of Advanced Micro Devices' stock, Seaport Research's Jay Goldberg is by no means looking at the artificial-intelligence trade with rose-colored glasses.

But on Thursday, he explored whether investors have been too harsh toward CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group (NBIS), two neocloud companies whose shares have come under extreme pressure in recent weeks.

While the stocks were moving higher in Thursday morning action thanks to an upbeat forecast from Micron Technology (MU), which is serving as a source of comfort regarding the broader AI trade, the scope of recent declines signals that investors remain worried about the debt required to finance the AI boom.

Don't miss: Micron just had its Nvidia moment. What comes next for the stock?

"Given the likelihood that both companies are going to need to raise more debt next year it is tough to upgrade them, but maybe the recent selloff is overdone," Goldberg wrote.

See also: Oracle is the canary in the coal mine for Big Tech's debt-fueled AI spending spree

He checked in with both companies this week as their shares sank and as credit spreads widened. He saw some reasons why investors might not have to worry quite so much.

For instance, Goldberg noted that delayed drawdown term loans are the biggest piece of CoreWeave's debt, but those "are largely matched to the specific contracts those facilities are funding."

"Those contracts include fixed rental prices, giving some degree of certainty to cash flow streams (and potentially upside)," he wrote.

Plus, the company's credit profile "actually seems to have improved during the year, with amendments to its DDTLs bringing its cost of capital down meaningfully, with its credit profile approaching that of some of its customers," Goldberg added.

There are also reasons to stick with a more measured view of the stocks, including that there's "just too much uncertainty around them." The biggest issue, in Goldberg's view, is that the market isn't quite clear on how to value the neocloud players, especially with the pricing specifics of their deals still somewhat of a mystery.

And the debt worries, while potentially overblown, are also not nothing. "Both companies still need to raise a lot of debt, and the price of that has now gotten more expensive," he wrote. "CoreWeave also seems to have lost some of its 'magic' in delivering projects on time."

Plus, while CoreWeave and Nebius aren't tied to Oracle, Wall Street has clearly become concerned about that company's deals and debt obligations, and those fears are having ripple effects across the AI universe.

Read: Oracle's stock falls on a fear one analyst says should be 'almost irrelevant'

-Emily Bary

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12-18-25 1011ET