Deutsche Bank survey reveals what troubles investors most in 2026 - and what doesn't

By Jules Rimmer

The AI/tech bubble perception risk remains the No.1 worry for fund managers going into the new year

Deutsche Bank's 2026 year ahead global financial survey threw up some interesting findings

A survey conducted by Deutsche Bank in the last week identified the risks that trouble investors most about 2026. Perhaps what was most surprising about the responses from 440 asset managers was not what worried them, but what didn't.

Among those things that investors didn't think could go wrong, but very clearly have done within recent memory and seriously rattled financial markets at the time, were the possibilities of a global pandemic (for which no one voted) Middle Eastern tension escalating dangerously (1) a global trade war (3%), Taiwan becoming a global flashpoint (just 5%) or France experiencing a major political or financial crisis.

Which if any, of the following do you think pose the biggest risks to market stability in 2026?

The Deutsche Bank annual poll was conducted by its head of global economics and thematic research, Jim Reid and illustrated one thing very distinctly: "The AI/ tech bubble risk towers over everything else". In fact, Reid goes on to point out, "We've never had such a big leader in the biggest risk stakes for the year ahead."

More than half of respondents cited this as the largest concern for 2026, followed by almost equal amounts of fretting over whether a new Fed chair will cut rates aggressively and trigger market turmoil, or a crisis is brewing in private capital.

Bond yields rising more than anticipated and central banks hiking unexpectedly because of sticky inflation attracted 21% and 15% of votes respectively, but could perhaps be interpreted as the same risk essentially and their combined weighting would be more notable.

Reid makes the interesting point that even though the bubble risk perception is certainly elevated, it's lower than it was in September and below what was seen in 2021's post-pandemic liquidity boom that floated all boats. More curiously, even though U.S. high-yield spreads are at post-1998 lows, few investors seemed to be unduly perturbed here.

One corollary of the disquietude surrounding tech valuations is that 71% of those polled expressed a preference for the rest of the U.S. equity market over the Magnificent7 MAGS in their pensions. This has been stable since July 2024, though, and Mag7 has outperformed the broader market SPX by around nine percentage points since.

One noteworthy observation centered on AI adoption. Asked in the summer of 2024, only half those surveyed had actually used AI for work purposes. That percentage has now risen to 86% and, Reid notes, the pickup is higher in Europe than America.

For investors seeking guidance for the S&P 500 index in 2026, the average forecast return is just 6.9% ( versus the 15% delivered so far in 2025) and this is actually the highest this survey has predicted in four years.

Raising far fewer eyebrows were the revelations that most people think Spain will win the FIFA world cup in 2026 and "Last Christmas" by Wham! is everyone's favorite festive song. Some things never change.

-Jules Rimmer

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12-18-25 0908ET