It's time to take profits in silver after record-breaking run, these analysts say

By Jules Rimmer

One analyst said silver is moving in an 'impulsive' way

Some analysts think the silver price must succumb to gravity sooner or later

The 126% surge in silver prices, almost double the growth of gold, has left some analysts wondering whether the rally has gone too far.

Sameer Samana from the Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Brett Donnelly from independent research house Spectra Markets both feel that further gains may be more difficult to come by and silver ought to take a breather after its record-setting rally.

The primary locomotives behind silver's surge in 2025 are by now well-established. Like the other precious metals it has benefited from the so-called debasement trade, from lower interest rates, sticky inflation, geopolitical turbulence, dollar weakness DXY, central bank appetite and robust industrial demand especially in the solar and electric vehicle sectors.

There have been physical shortages of silver at various times in 2025 that have contributed to some of the steeper price spikes.

All that said, Donnelly said the gains seem to be in excess of fundamental factors.

He said "the rally is mostly happening in an impulsive way that has almost nothing to do with anything going on in the real world." He points out that while silver has pushed on in recent months, the U.S. deficit hasn't changed materially and other debasement plays like bitcoin (BTCUSD) and equities NDX have lost their way.

Donnelly isn't inclined to recommend shorting silver here but his salient message is this: "It's worth noting that after 100% rallies in a single year, forward returns are bad."

After strongly positive years with returns of 100% or more, the following years tend to be more challenging for silver historically

The examples of 100% plus yearly returns aren't plentiful but when they happen, "the next year tends to be meh," Donnelly writes. He's of the opinion that one should discard silver and the megacap tech names MAGS on entering 2026 and stick to gold (GC00) if you want a debasement play.

Samana's comments on silver, included in Wells Fargo's weekly investment note, focuses on technicals too but with a slightly different emphasis. He observes that at a reading of 68 on the relative strength index, a technical metric measuring price momentum, is close to overbought and silver's 50-day moving average is now above its 200-day moving average.

From his perspective, this suggests silver is "quite overbought" and so "investors may want to take profits and wait for a pullback."

-Jules Rimmer

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12-18-25 0503ET