Kevin Warsh's odds of becoming Fed chair leap higher as Dimon signals support

By Rey Mashayekhi

President Trump said he was leaning toward choosing either Warsh or Kevin Hassett to succeed Fed chair Jerome Powell

Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh sits second from left as he takes part in a panel discussion in Washington last year.

Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh's odds of becoming President Donald Trump's pick as the next chair of the Federal Reserve jumped on Saturday - with prediction markets pricing in a greater chance that he will get the nod after Trump indicated he was a finalist for the role, while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also reportedly signaled his support for Warsh.

Warsh's odds of being Trump's nominee as Fed chair spiked on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket by 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively, at last check - though top Trump administration economic adviser Kevin Hassett was still the favorite, with at least a 50% chance on both markets.

Warsh's improving prospects for the top job at the Fed come after Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that he was leaning toward "the two Kevins" in his search for a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While Hassett, director of Trump's National Economic Council, has been viewed as the front-runner for the job, the president told the Journal that Warsh was also at the top of his list after the two men met for 45 minutes at the White House on Wednesday.

"[Warsh] thinks you have to lower interest rates. And so does everybody else that I've talked to," said Trump, who has been critical of the Fed's perceived reluctance to cut interest rates under Powell's leadership due to concerns about persistent inflation. The Fed cut rates by a quarter-point for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday - a move Trump said should have been at least twice as large.

The president added that he believes the next Fed chair should consult with him on the central bank's interest-rate policy. "I don't think he should do exactly what we say. But ... I'm a smart voice and should be listened to," he told the Journal, noting that he thinks interest rates should be "1% and maybe lower than that" within a year.

Warsh's rising odds also come after JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon reportedly told Wall Street executives at a private conference Thursday that he agreed with Warsh's writings on the Fed, according to the Financial Times. Dimon also said that he believed Hassett, as Fed chair, would be more likely to cut interest rates in line with Trump's wishes, according to the FT.

The JPMorgan chief said earlier this year that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "absolutely critical," adding that presidental meddling in the central bank's policymaking "can often have adverse consequences - absolutely opposite of what you might be hoping for."

Some bond investors have expressed concerns that a Hassett-led Fed would prioritize economic growth over price stability in pursuing more aggresive interest-rate cuts -potentially disrupting the Treasury market and hindering bond portfolios.

-Rey Mashayekhi

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12-13-25 1608ET