Bitcoin could reach $170,000 if it trades like gold, says JPMorgan strategist

By Jules Rimmer

Bitcoin's back in positive territory for the year

Bitcoin may be past the worst as it turned positive on the year.

Bitcoin could trade as high as $170,000 if investors were to value it like gold, according to a JPMorgan strategist.

The comparison, put forward by global market strategist, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, was made after adjusting for bitcoin's more volatile nature and was just a "theoretical" comparison intended to demonstrate the upside the cryptocurrency has.

After a 12% rebound from its November lows, bitcoin (BTCUSD) edged into positive territory for the year at $93,500 in early trading Thursday.

One of the main talking points around the whole investment case for bitcoin recently has been the impact of its price fall on Michael Saylor's bitcoin treasury company, Strategy (MSTR).

As its market net asset value (the combined market value of its debt, preferred shares and equity divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings) declined from a ratio of 2.7 times earlier in 2025 and approached 1.0, crypto traders became nervous about Saylor being forced to sell.

If the ratio stays above 1.0 - it stands at 1.16 at present - then Panigirtzoglou thinks markets will be reassured. Strategy already set aside a $1.4 billion reserve for dividend and interest payments over the next two years to obviate the need to sell bitcoins in the near future.

JPMorgan calculates the production cost of bitcoin has fallen recently to approximately $90,000, lower than the $94,000 they estimated in mid-November. This is owing to a decline in the hash rate (a metric quantifying a network's computational power and efficiency) and mining difficulty. This is because the Chinese government reiterated a ban on bitcoin mining, where it's particularly cheap owing to inexpensive energy, and high-cost miners outside China are retreating as lower prices have dented their profitability.

Bitcoin versus its cost of production.

For Panigirtzoglou the production cost should serve as a soft floor of sorts for the bitcoin price. Mining below that level is not cost-effective.

Another issue to the detriment of bitcoin trading sentiment of late has been the upcoming MSCI decision on Jan. 15 to decide on Strategy's inclusion in various indices.

Panigirtzoglou predicts outflows of $2.8 billion from Strategy in the event of an exclusion from MSCI and $8.8 billion if shut out of all indices, but Strategy stock has underperformed bitcoin by some 20% since early October, suggesting markets have fully discounted exclusion.

Conversely, if the decision Jan. 15 is positive then both Strategy and bitcoin may exhibit asymmetric upside in a relief rebound.

One last point cited by JPMorgan is that the sharp deleveraging in perpetual futures (contracts with no expiration) that began in September would appear to be over as the ratio of open interest to bitcoin's market capitalization, now $1.85 trillion, has stabilized.

-Jules Rimmer

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12-04-25 0544ET