Trump says he's made his decision on the next Fed chair. Here's what to know about front-runner Kevin Hassett.

By Victor Reklaitis

Prediction markets give Hassett, a top economist in the Trump administration, a nearly 80% chance of becoming Fed chief

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, a candidate for Federal Reserve chair, speaks to reporters outside the White House on Nov. 13.

Kevin Hassett, a top economist in the Trump administration, has seen a surge in his chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve chair, with prediction markets saying Monday he has a 70% chance to get the nod.

Hassett is looking increasingly like the front-runner for the Fed job after a Bloomberg News report last week said he was seen by President Donald Trump's advisers and allies as the favorite.

Trump told reporters Sunday that he knows who he's going to pick to lead the U.S. central bank, but the president declined to say whether Hassett was his choice. Hassett told CBS News on Sunday that he's "not sure that Bloomberg has the story right," adding that he's "really honored to be amongst a group of really great candidates," while noting how traders have reacted.

"The news for markets was that President Trump is close to announcing a new person who is going to replace Jay Powell, and if you look at the market response to that, it was very, very positive," Hassett said, referring to current Fed chief Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. "We had a great Treasury auction, interest rates went down, and so I think that the American people could expect President Trump to pick somebody who's going to help them, you know, have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rates."

One prediction market, Kalshi, put Hassett's chances at around 77% on Monday, up from about 54% on Wednesday, while former Fed governor Kevin Warsh was at 11% and current Fed governor Christopher Waller was at 7%. Another prediction market, Polymarket, also had Hassett at 77%, with Warsh at 11% and Waller at 6%.

The Trump White House had five finalists for the top Fed post in October - Hassett, Waller and Warsh, as well as Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world's largest asset manager.

To be sure, prediction markets can be poor at forecasting, as was shown with one Supreme Court pick years ago. An expert in such markets once told MarketWatch that they can "get caught up in a narrative."

Who is Kevin Hassett?

Hassett, 63, has been serving as director of the Trump White House's National Economic Council. In that capacity, he has often talked up or defended the president's moves on trade or on other economic issues. He received a doctorate in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

If Hassett is selected, it could spark fresh concerns that Trump is aiming to erode the independence of the Fed. Economists at Deutsche Bank warned in a note in June that the Fed's next chair could face difficulties in convincing the central bank's policy committee to lean more toward cutting interest rates if he or she is coming from outside the Fed. Like Hassett, they would have to "support economic policies that could raise questions about the Fed's independence." Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to reduce rates, saying that inflation has eased. Hassett has joined the president on that front.

During Trump's first term, Hassett was chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. He also previously worked at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C., and he served as an economic adviser to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Hassett was asked if Trump held it against him that he had worked for those three Republican politicians during an Economic Club of Washington, D.C., event three weeks ago.

"He's seen my whole resume," Hassett responded. "I guess there have been a lot of people who have come into government with worse backgrounds." He also said at that event that if Trump asks him to be Fed chair, "then of course I'll do it, but if I'm not Fed chair, don't be disappointed for me, because I love the job that I have right now."

The White House didn't respond on Monday to MarketWatch's request for comment.

Robert Schroeder contributed.

-Victor Reklaitis

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12-01-25 1232ET