What iPhone slump? Apple is set to become the industry leader for the first time in 14 years.

By Britney Nguyen

Samsung has been the smartphone industry's market-share leader, but iPhone 17 momentum puts Apple on track to reclaim its crown

Apple, led by Tim Cook, has seen meaningful traction for the iPhone 17 since the phone lineup debuted in September.

Apple has gotten some flak from critics on Wall Street who say the company hasn't innovated enough in its smartphone business. But the new iPhone 17 seems to be enough of a catalyst to propel Apple to the top position in the global smartphone market.

The company's smartphone momentum could make it the annual leader in smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, according to analysts at Counterpoint Research who see the company holding that crown through 2029. Samsung last occupied the top position.

Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 17 series, which debuted in September, is seeing interest "across key regions," Counterpoint said, and iPhone shipments are projected to be up 10% in 2025 from last year. That's well ahead of the 3.3% growth expected for the smartphone market at large.

See more: Apple's iPhone 17 event sends the stock lower. Here's why - and everything else to know.

While Apple's smartphone shipments have been impressive so far this year, the firm said Apple had a particularly strong third quarter. Shipments of the iPhone "exceeded expectations" in the period, Counterpoint said, and saw growth of 9% from a year earlier.

"The launch of the iPhone 17 series marked a shift in Apple's usual lineup," Counterpoint said, flagging the iPhone Air, which replaced the Plus model in the series. Changes in memory design and pricing also helped.

According to the firm's tracker, iPhone 17 sales in the U.S. during the first four weeks of its release were up 12% when compared with the iPhone 16 series, not including the lower-cost iPhone 16e model. In the same period, iPhone 17 sales in China were up 18% versus the previous model series, Counterpoint said, noting that the iPhone Air was not included in the initial release in China.

The research firm said it expects Apple to see double-digit growth in both China and the U.S. for October.

"Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point," Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang said in a statement.

Basically, people who bought iPhones during the height of the pandemic are now looking to upgrade. Additionally, between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold, Wang said, and these iPhone users are expected to require upgrades in the next few years. Altogether, Wang sees a "sizable demand base" for Apple in the coming quarters, which should keep up iPhone shipment growth.

Counterpoint also noted that Apple has "benefitted from lower-than-expected" impacts from U.S. tariffs and a softening of geopolitical tensions.

"This not only helped Apple's supply chain and the ongoing efforts to diversify manufacturing bases, but also aggregate demand in its key growth regions, i.e. emerging markets," Counterpoint said, adding that consumers are becoming more confident as domestic currencies appreciate against the U.S. dollar, and the economy looks more "resilient."

Meanwhile, Apple's delayed rollout of its Apple Intelligence features "has not been a detriment to iPhone sales," Counterpoint said. Apple's more disciplined approach to AI investments held its stock back earlier in the year, but Apple shares are among the best performers within the "Magnificent Seven" over the past month, as investors have more heavily scrutinized the spending plans of rivals.

"Apple shares have shown resilience compared to their mega-cap peers as they have significantly less exposure to the AI cycle," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria previously told MarketWatch.

Read: Why Apple's stock is beating the market even as the tech sector sells off

For 2025, Counterpoint is expecting Apple's smartphone shipments to make up a 19.4% share of the global market, giving it first place among smartphone manufacturers. Meanwhile, Samsung is expected to see its smartphone shipments grow 4.6% from the previous year, giving it an 18.7% share of the market.

"With shipments rebounding and even higher-priced foldables being launched, Apple is also expected to remain the top revenue contributor in the global smartphone market through the end of the decade," Counterpoint said. The analysts flagged a couple of anticipated developments on the horizon, including the iPhone 17e projected for the first half of next year, the company's first foldable iPhone expected by the end of 2026 and a flip iPhone in 2027.

"By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing 'e' series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market," Counterpoint said.

However, growing prices for smartphone components will add pressure to the market in 2026, Counterpoint said, which is expected to soften growth for the overall smartphone industry. Apple and Samsung, though, have "integrated supply chains and component sourcing," according to the analysts.

-Britney Nguyen

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-26-25 0946ET