Bets surge on Kevin Hassett becoming next Fed chair

By Jamie Chisholm

The current White House National Economic Council Director is in tune with Trump's view on interest rates

Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, is emerging as a front-runner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman.

Bets on Kevin Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve chair have surged over the last 24 hours, placing him as clear favorite to succeed Jerome Powell next year.

Traders on the Kalshi prediction exchange now see a 54% chance that President Donald Trump will choose the current White House National Economic Council Director to take over leadership of the U.S. central bank when Powell's term ends in May 2026.

The Kalshi odds show that Hassett has for a few weeks become the most likely to be nominated by Trump, as Fed governor Christopher Waller and former governor Kevin Warsh fell away.

The new bump in bets on Hassett followed a report from Bloomberg on Tuesday that he was seen by advisers and allies of Trump as the frontrunner for the Fed chair position.

Hassett is considered a likely successor of Powell because he agrees with Trump that interest rates should be cut quicker. The Fed is expected to reduce official borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% after its Dec. 10 meeting.

However, the fed funds rate is only expected to be reduced to around 3% by the end of 2026, and Trump in the past has said he wants it much lower than that.

The prospect of a Fed soon to be led by a much more dovish chair helped push 10-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y back below 4% on Tuesday, though they are just above that level again on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

"Hassett is a noted dove and a Trump loyalist who could be inclined, either because of temperament or cajolery, to keep U.S. rates lower than they might otherwise be," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The rumors, coupled with a touch of [soft] U.S. data and geopolitical developments [hopes for a China/U.S. rapprochement], saw the U.S. dollar sink and yields drop, as the markets price in the higher risk of easier monetary policy," Rodda added.

Read: The Fed's December rate-cut decision is even more crucial now that stocks are having their worst November since 2008

-Jamie Chisholm

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11-26-25 0419ET