Firefly is 'ready to reignite,' analyst says as the stock booms

By William Gavin

The aerospace firm expects to resume launching its Alpha rocket in the coming months, after its last test ended in an explosion

Firefly Aerospace plans to fly its Blue Ghost lander back to the moon next year. In March, it became the first commercial lander successfully touch down on the Moon.

Firefly Aerospace shares are soaring on Thursday after strong earnings - and a plan to resume rocket launches.

The space-technology company (FLY) said it plans to start launching its Alpha rocket between late 2025 and early 2026, after it fixes the issues that caused one of its rockets to explode during a test in September. Firefly said it identified a process error that resulted in fluid contamination, and that a number of corrective actions have been taken to prevent similar situations from occurring.

"This will be a clear catalyst for the stock and can change the narrative around Firefly quickly," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said, in a note titled "Ready to reignite." The analyst upgraded Firefly's stock to buy from hold, even as he lowered his price target to $30 from $40.

Firefly shares are down 53% from their August initial-public-offering price of $45, pressured by concerns over issues with the Alpha rockets and poor second-quarter earnings.

Yu thinks Firefly should also benefit from President Donald Trump's "Golden Dome," a missile-defense system that the president said could cost $175 billion over a three year period. Third-party approximations vary, and the American Enterprise Institute think tank has estimated that the project could cost between $252 billion and $3.6 trillion over a 20-year period.

Firefly said last month that it would acquire SciTec, an advanced national-security technology company, for about $855 million through a cash-and-stock deal. Chief Executive Jason Kim on Wednesday said SciTec will help Firefly provide the Golden Dome program with "comprehensive end-to-end capabilities." He added that the company is pursuing three elements of the program.

"We can fly and deliver space-based interceptors utilizing our spacecraft, launch surrogate targets and hypersonic tests with our Alpha rocket, as well as integrate data processing from a network of sensors to perform fire control with SciTech ground processing," Kim said on a call with investors, according to a transcript.

Firefly raised its full-year guidance for revenue to between $150 million and $158 million, from between $133 million and $145 million. It reported revenue of $30.8 million for its third quarter, up from $22.4 million a year earlier. But Firefly's net loss was $140.4 million, wider than the $46.1 million loss it recorded during the same period in 2024.

Firefly shares were up 15% in Thursday afternoon trading. The company is now valued at about $2.68 billion, far below its $8.48 billion valuation on its first day as a public company in August.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield said in a note Wednesday that it was "very likely" that Firefly could become the "space trade" of 2026, although he thought launch and satellite developments would ultimately determine the stock's trajectory.

In addition to restarting Alpha launches by early next year, Firefly aims to fly its second Blue Ghost lander mission in 2026. In March, the company became the first to launch a commercial lander upright and intact on the moon's surface. Firefly is also working on the Eclipse medium-lift launch vehicle, which it is developing with defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)

-William Gavin

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11-13-25 1531ET