No unemployment rate for October? Key economic reports to be canceled, delayed and damaged by historic shutdown.

By Jeffry Bartash

Wall Street anxiously awaits crucial information on inflation and job creation

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history has ended, but the fallout is far from over.

It appears that critical information on U.S. inflation, jobs and unemployment for October may disappear in a data "black hole," as Trump administration officials say some key economic figures for the month may be lost forever.

Kevin Hassett, one of President Trump's top economic advisors, said Thursday in a Fox TV interview the unemployment rate for October won't be released because of the longest government shutdown in history. It would be the first time in 77 years that the jobless rate went unpublished.

Yet an estimate of job creation for October will be calculated, Hassett said - contrary to a statement a day earlier by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt that the employment report might not be released at all.

What's still unclear is whether the consumer-price index for October will be published. Levitt suggested the CPI report might not be released, though Hassett did not comment on that.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the CPI and employment reports, could not immediately be reached for comment. The agency is expected to release an updated economic calendar as early as Friday.

The end of the government shutdown, it turns out, is just the start of a messy situation for the main U.S. statistical agencies that collect vital information on the economy.

The problems could take months to resolve, obscuring what's going on in the U.S. economy at a crucial juncture when growth appears wobbly and inflation is creeping higher. The Federal Reserve is also trying to decide whether to keep cutting interest rates, and the data delay is complicating its job.

Unfillable gaps?

While neither the October CPI or jobs report would be as accurate as usual, they still could give Wall Street DJIA SPX investors enough information to get a sense of what was happening in the economy during the shutdown.

"Something is better than nothing," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "No one wants a data 'black hole' for October."

The nut of the problem is that furloughed government workers were unable to survey companies and families about employment or go to stores and check price changes during October. Now they would have to try ask them weeks after the fact.

The BLs and other statistical agencies could try to backfill and make some educated guesses, but it's no panacea.

The easiest information to collect would come from businesses that send their data to the government electronically on employment, prices, retail sales and so forth.

The biggest difficulty would involve surveys drawn from individuals, such as the unemployment rate.

The BLS directly asks up to 60,000 households a month about their employment status. Yet it's a lot harder for people to accurately remember what their situation was like two months ago instead of just a few weeks ago.

The shutdown was not the only obstacle facing the BLS.

The agency does not have a permanent commissioner, for one thing. The prior commissioner was fired by President Trump last summer and the White House's first pick was withdrawn.

The BLS has also lost 25% of its workforce since February and one-third of its leadership positions remain unfilled, estimates the Friends of the BLS, a support group founded by two former commissioners.

The group said other staff members may have left during the shutdown when they were no longer getting paid, while a hiring freeze prevents them from being replaced.

"With fewer staff available to work, put in overtime, or be reassigned, recovery is likely to be slower," Friends of BLS said in a blog post.

How slow? Economists say the data could be affected for months. It might not even be until early 2026 that normalcy is stored.

Backward looking

What won't be affected much are key September economic reports that were largely completed before the shutdown began Oct. 1. The September employment report and September producer price index, for example, are expected to be published next week.

Yet the first flurry of reports are already outdated.

"The data that will be released shortly after the shutdown ends will be backward-looking, and it won't show how the economy fared during or immediately after the shutdown ended," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Economic reports for November, what's more, are also likely to be delayed because the statistical agencies will have to complete work on the September and October reports first. In some cases, economists say, two months of the same report may be combined into one and published at the same time.

Aside from the BLS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census are the other two key statistical agencies. They could not immediately be reached for comment.

-Jeffry Bartash

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11-13-25 1320ET