Here's when to expect shutdown-delayed jobs and inflation reports once the government reopens

By Jeffry Bartash

Federal shutdown could affect key economic statistics for months

The longest government shutdown in history appears to be coming to an end, but the problems don't end there.

The apparently imminent end of the federal government shutdown means Wall Street could soon be flooded by crucial reports on the U.S. economy that have been delayed for more than a month. First up: September employment.

Economic calendar: Check out the daily schedule for U.S. economic data releases

The September jobs report was basically completed before the shutdown began Oct. 1. Based on past shutdowns, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will only need two or three business days to complete and release the report, economists say.

This Friday is the earliest the September jobs report could come out, Morgan Stanley economists estimate, but early next week might be more likely. (See Morgan Stanley's estimates for economic releases below.)

The biggest casualty of the shutdown was a trio of inflation reports for October. With government workers on furlough, they were unable to collect information on price changes during the month.

In a worst-case scenario, the consumer-price index, the producer-price index and the PCE index for October won't be published at all. The PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation barometer.

Alternatively, the Bureau of Labor Statistics - whose commissioner was fired by Donald Trump following a poor July report - could try to piece together the inflation trends for the month. But the quality of the reports would suffer, economists say, and they might come out so late as to be practically useless.

The late release of the September jobs report and absence of the October inflation reports won't give the Fed much to go on as it debates whether to cut U.S. interest rates for a third meeting in a row. Central-bank officials next convene in early December.

The October jobs report could provide some answers. The report was due last Friday, but it will probably take up to month to complete, economists say.

Morgan Stanley estimates the October print might not be published until a few days before the Fed's interest-rate meeting on Dec. 9-10. It could even be paired with the November jobs report.

Even then, the usefulness of the October jobs estimate is questionable. BLS statisticians will have to cobble together the report after asking businesses and employees well after the fact about who was employed.

"Asking people about whether they looked for work in the four weeks prior to eight weeks ago is going to be confusing," said Jefferies's chief U.S. economist, Thomas Simons.

The furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees will also likely produce a negative headline number and distort the October report.

The November jobs report will give a cleaner and more up-to-date look at the health of the job market. It's due Dec. 5 and might be on time.

The Fed is also likely to see the November CPI on the second day of its two-day meeting in December - the first clean look at inflation in a few months.

Read on: Trump says 'polls are fake' after Fox News personality Ingraham says people are anxious about the economy. Here's what the data say.

-Jeffry Bartash

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11-11-25 0823ET