Meta's earnings are on deck. These are the four biggest numbers to watch.

By Emily Bary

When Meta reports earnings on Wednesday, investors should focus on its capital-spending forecast, ad revenue, engagement trends and holiday-quarter expectations

AI has helped Meta deliver improved content recommendations on Instagram and Facebook.

Meta Platforms Inc. has carved out a unique spot for itself in the world of artificial intelligence, leveraging the technology to drive improvements to its advertising business while spending heavily on things like AI talent and the creation of large-language models.

That creates an interesting setup heading into Wednesday afternoon's earnings report, as investors will be looking for more tangible signs that Meta (META) is seeing business benefits from AI, helping to justify an expected ramp of capital expenditures heading into next year.

While Meta shares rose more than 11% in the session following the Facebook parent company's last earnings report, they weren't able to hold on to all of those gains. The stock is now up only 8% in the wake of that report.

Whether Meta's stock can drive another big post-earnings move - and sustain it - may depend on these four metrics in Wednesday's report.

Advertising revenue

Nearly all of Meta's revenue comes from advertising, and the company has the potential to accelerate growth this quarter, especially if it delivers a beat.

Meta's advertising revenue grew 21.5% in the second quarter, and analysts tracked by FactSet are looking for $48.5 billion in the third quarter - a number that would imply a 21.6% year-over-year growth rate.

A Wedbush industry survey found "healthy advertiser spending intent forthe social media category, and in particular for Meta," analyst Scott Devitt noted. He added that Meta has "clear optionality related to the infusion of AI across the business, which is already driving tangible benefits." Plus, executives have executed well in recent quarters, he said.

All the while, Meta's valuation multiple has come down over the past three months, Devitt wrote, contributing to a positive post-earnings setup for the stock.

See more: These 5 tech stocks could let you play earnings season like a pro

Engaging the user base

Meta has used artificial intelligence to improve targeting for advertisers and to allow marketers to create campaigns more easily. But AI also has helped Meta keep customers more engaged with its platform, thanks to more personalized content recommendations.

With that in mind, Meta investors should pay attention to the time spent on services like Instagram. For instance, Seaport Research analyst Aaron Kessler noted that last quarter, Meta showed off "strong video engagement with Instagram," as time spent on the service was up 20% from a year before.

"We would also look for an update on Meta AI engagement," Kessler wrote, as more than 1 billion people were using Meta AI on a monthly basis as of a recent disclosure.

The cost of staying competitive

It takes big money to compete in the current AI landscape, so Wall Street will be looking to see how Meta is treating capital expenditures.

The company said in its prior earnings report that it expected $66 billion to $72 billion in capital expenditures for the full year, which was revised from an earlier forecast calling for $64 billion to $72 billion in 2025.

"While the infrastructure planning process remains highly dynamic, we currently expect another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026 as we continue aggressively pursuing opportunities to bring additional capacity online to meet the needs of our artificial-intelligence efforts and business operations," Meta added in its last release.

With the FactSet consensus anticipating $97 billion in 2026 capex and some analysts thinking $100 billion-plus is in the cards, investors may be looking for more quantitative commentary from Meta's management this time around.

See also: Here are the details of Wall Street's biggest private-credit deal ever.

Heading into the holidays

The holiday season is big for advertising, and thus for Meta's business. Watch the company's guidance for signs of strength: Analysts are looking for $57.3 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, which would easily mark a record total.

Seaport's Kessler, whose $57.2 billion estimate is about in line with the consensus view, wrote that his model "could prove somewhat conservative."

The fourth-quarter performance would come on the heels of an expected $49.5 billion in third-quarter revenue, which itself would be a record, as well as an estimated $6.72 in third-quarter earnings per share.

-Emily Bary

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10-28-25 1012ET