FedEx's freight business puts profit outlook at risk, analyst says

By James Rogers and Tomi Kilgore

FedEx shares drop after J.P. Morgan abandoned its bullish stance amid increasing worries that the earnings guidance may be too optimistic

Shipping giant FedEx Corp. has been downgraded by JP Morgan.

Shares of FedEx Corp. stumbled at the opening bell Wednesday amid concerns that slower freight demand could weigh on the shipping giant's earnings.

J.P. Morgan downgraded FedEx (FDX) to neutral from overweight Wednesday. An expected rebound in the freight business may not materialize, the analysts said, citing sources in the less-than-truckload (LTL) industry.

The analysts were cautious in their note, despite FedEx's decision last month to reinstate its fiscal 2026 profit outlook - a move seen at the time as a signal that trade uncertainty was easing.

But analyst Brian Ossenbeck is increasingly concerned that FedEx's full-year earnings-per-share guidance is at risk, given that it already embeds a rebound in freight fundamentals. FedEx expects adjusted full-year earnings between $17.20 and $19 per share, which surrounds the average analyst estimate compiled by FactSet of $18.11.

Ossenbeck also pointed to the high cost of FedEx's plan to spin off its freight business and "recent operational underperformance" as factors that could weigh on the valuation of the LTL business in the wake of the spinoff.

Growing competition could also prove a headwind to earnings. "[O]ur discussions across the parcel industry confirm shippers are increasingly pushing back on higher rates while competitors add capacity to the market on a regular basis," he added.

FedEx shares were down 0.6% in recent morning trading, compared with the S&P 500 index's SPX gain of 0.4%. The stock has lost 14.4% in 2025, while the S&P has gained 14.6%.

The downgrade followed BofA Securities' recent downgrade of FedEx and rival United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), amid changes to the so-called "de minimis" trade exemptions.

Of the 32 analysts surveyed by FactSet who cover FedEx, 19 are bullish, 11 are neutral and two are bearish.

Claudia Assis contributed.

-James Rogers -Tomi Kilgore

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10-08-25 1201ET