NYSE owner dives into prediction markets with $2 billion Polymarket investment

By Tomi Kilgore

Intercontinental Exchange's move comes as rival trading platforms Robinhood and Interactive Brokers already have prediction-market offerings

Intercontinental Exchange to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, the prediction-market company founded by Shayne Coplan.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. is making a big move into the fast-growing realm of prediction markets, as the owner of the iconic New York Stock Exchange looks to keep pace with its rivals.

The $2 billion investment announced Tuesday by Intercontinental Exchange into privately held Polymarket is a way for the owner of the 233-year-old NYSE to link Wall Street to Main Street, allowing it to take part in the public's growing interest in betting on the outcomes of everything from the outcome of elections, the number of tweets by Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk and the winner of the World Series.

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As part of the investment, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will distribute Polymarket's data to institutional investors, provide customers with sentiment indicators on key market-moving topics and set the exchange to partner with Polymarket on initiatives involving digital tokens.

"Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream," said Shayne Coplan, founder and chief executive of Polymarket. "Together, we're expanding how individuals and institutions use probabilities to understand and price the future."

ICE's stock climbed 1.5% in premarket trading Tuesday, a day after closing at a six-month low. Shares of Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), which has its own prediction-markets offering, edge up 0.1%. And shares of Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), which also has an event-contracts business, slipped 0.6%.

Of those three, ICE's stock has been the worst performer this year with a gain of just 8.3%, compared with a 56.7% rally in Interactive Brokers' stock and a 287.7% run-up in Robinhood shares.

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"Our investment blends ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, which was founded in 1792, with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the decentralized finance space," said ICE Chief Executive Jeffrey Sprecher.

The ICE investment implies a market valuation for Polymarket, prior to the investment, of $8 billion.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley questioned the valuation, but wrote that he likes that the investment "immediately puts ICE at the center of two of the fastest growing trends in the exchange and trading space," prediction market trading and tokenization opportunities.

The investment in Polymarket - one of the two biggest prediction-market companies, along with Kalshi - will be in cash. ICE doesn't expect the investment to have a material impact on 2025 financial results or on its plan for capital returns.

The company said it would discuss the strategy behind the Polymarket investment when it reports third-quarter results on Oct. 30.

-Tomi Kilgore

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10-07-25 1304ET