55% of swing-state voters dislike Bidenomics more than Trump's abortion stance: poll

By Victor Reklaitis

New Cook Political Report poll looks at how swing-state voters view economic policy, abortion rights, threats to democracy and more

The 2024 White House race is close, but presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump appears to have the edge at the moment thanks in large part to swing-state voters frustrated with President Joe Biden's handling of the U.S. economy, said analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday as they rolled out a new poll.

"While abortion remains a strong issue for Democrats, Biden's advantage on the issue isn't strong enough to offset Trump's overall strength on bringing down the cost of living," wrote CPR's Amy Walter and David Wasserman in an analysis of a poll of seven swing states that they released Thursday.

They said this year's presidential election is currently driven by a traditional issue - the economy. That's after abortion rights were a winning issue for Democratic candidates in 2022's midterm elections as well as in contests in 2023.

CPR's poll found Trump leading Biden in a head-to-head matchup 47% to 44% in the seven states overall. The former president was ahead by a bigger margin of 43% to 38% when other presidential candidates such as independent hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were included.

The survey of 3,969 likely voters was conducted from May 6 to May 13 in collaboration with Democratic polling firm BSG and Republican polling firm GS Strategy Group. The states targeted were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

"When we asked voters which worried them more, Biden setting economic policy or Trump setting policy for abortion rights, 55% said they were more worried about Biden handling the economy than they were about Trump setting policy on abortion (45%)," Walter and Wasserman said. That result from their poll is shown in the above chart, which is titled: "If the election is a choice between opposing Trump on abortion or Biden on [the economy], Trump is currently positioned to win."

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Their poll also illustrated how economic concerns are dominating for swing-state voters, as shown in the chart below.

The Biden campaign has been dismissive of some polling, noting Election Day is still around a half year away. When asked earlier this month about surveys for Minnesota and Virginia that the Trump campaign had found encouraging, Biden campaign's director for battleground states, Dan Kanninen, told reporters that he and his colleagues "don't see polls that are six or seven months out from the general election, a head-to-head number certainly, as any more predictive than a weather report is six, seven months out."

CPR's poll found swing-state voters see big risks in a second Trump presidency, with 25% saying Trump will try to become a dictator but America will remain a democracy, and 20% saying Trump will in fact become a dictator.

"Biden's overall weak position, combined with voters' deep worry about rising costs, is currently limiting his ability to make the case that Trump is the bigger risk," according to Walter, CPR's publisher and editor-in-chief; and Wasserman, the organization's senior editor and elections analyst. They said swing-state voters seem "pessimistic not just about the job Biden is doing today, but about his ability to make meaningful and positive change in a second term."

Patrick Toomey, a partner in Democratic polling firm BSG, told CPR that he's "haunted" by the section of the survey focused on the potential for a U.S. dictatorship. "There are significant numbers of voters who appear willing to risk the future of democracy because they believe Trump could help get costs down," Toomey said.

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics on Friday were giving Trump a 50% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, ahead of Biden at 38%.

-Victor Reklaitis

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05-25-24 0757ET

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