Betting on the Kentucky Derby? Here's how to think like a professional handicapper.

By Charles Passy

This year's race, on May 4, marks the 150th edition of the Run for the Roses

Attention, horse-racing fans - and those who just like to sip on their annual mint juleps: It's Kentucky Derby time again.

This year's race at Louisville's Churchill Downs - the 150th in the history of the event - is set for Saturday, May 4, with a post time of 6:57 p.m. Eastern time. The event will be aired live by Comcast-owned CMCSA, +0.42% NBC and Peacock, as well as streaming services that feature NBC.

The Derby (nicknamed the "Run for the Roses") is the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown - to be followed by the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes in the coming weeks. It's the rare horse that can win all three - it's happened just 13 times in history - but the journey begins with the Derby. The event is often celebrated with much partying while wearing fancy hats and sipping on mint juleps - the race's signature, bourbon-based cocktail.

Of course, there's also the opportunity to place wagers and make some money - and you don't have to be at the track to do that, as many off-track sites and mobile apps offer bets on the race. But the picking isn't exactly easy, especially with a field of 20 horses. Among the favorites are two Kentucky-born horses: Sierra Leone and Fierceness.

Confused about where to begin? MarketWatch sought advice from professional handicappers - folks who make their livings on wagering - for some basic pointers. Following are eight tips they shared.

Buy the horse-racing bible (and read it thoroughly)

Investors have their go-to sources for information (including, ahem, this website). And so do horseplayers - namely, the Daily Racing Form.

What makes the Form invaluable is all the information it offers on every horse in every race, including past performance, pedigree and the trainers and jockeys in charge. These facts and figures constitute the basis for how every professional - and many a smart amateur - handicaps a race. Some handicappers will devote an hour to going over the Form for each race.

Understand that pace makes the race

If there's a single factor that handicappers say shapes their view of how a race will play out, it's the pacing. When a race appears to be dominated by speed horses that are known to rush to the front, a horse that usually hangs back may have a decided advantage. (The theory is that the speed horses will tire each other out by the time they reach the home stretch.) Conversely, when a race has lots of "closers," a speed horse may be the best bet. (The theory is that while the closers are waiting to make their move, the speed horse will have already opened up an unbeatable gap.)

But how can a bettor determine the likely pace of the race? It's about carefully reading the Form, which not only shows how horses have finished in their previous races but where they ranked at each stage (beginning, middle and end, plus other points in between) of those races.

Be a value investor (er, bettor)

For handicappers, it's not necessarily a matter of betting on the horse that's "best." Rather, it's about betting on horses that represent good value - the racing equivalent of Warren Buffett's celebrated value-minded approach to investing. Experienced bettors are hesitant to put their money on favorites because they typically go off at low odds (and they win only about a third of the time), so the risk-and-reward equation is not an enticing one. Nor do handicappers necessarily like long shots: What good is placing a 50-1 bet if there's really no chance the horse will win?

Ultimately, the ideal horse is one that goes off at higher odds than reality would suggest: a horse that should be 4-1, for example, but is instead offering an 8-1 payoff.

Know when to ask: 'Who's your daddy?'

You'll hear a lot of racing-industry folks speak about pedigree, as in a horse's father and mother. The belief is that success breeds success - or why would there be talk of "stud fees" in the tens of thousands of dollars? Handicappers will tell you that pedigree counts, but mainly in instances where there's not enough hard data to suggest how a horse will run. For example, if it's the first time a horse has raced on grass (as opposed to the more common dirt track), it might be worth seeing how mom and dad handled grass.

Think exotic

If you're just placing win-place-or-show bets, you're probably not a professional. Serious handicappers like "exotic" bets - exactas (which means predicting the top two finishers of a race in exact order), trifectas (the top three) and superfectas (the top four). Another type of exotic involves picking the winners in multiple races - say, a Pick Three (three races in order), Pick Four (four races) or Pick Six (six races).

The attraction is obvious: The more complex the bet, the bigger the payoff (some winning Pick 6 wagers have paid in the millions). Given how little a straight win bet typically pays, those bigger payoffs are often the key to making real money at the track.

Don't forget the jockey

In racing, horses don't live in a bubble - they need a jockey to guide them from start to finish. And while handicappers generally pay more heed to the animal than the man (or woman) atop the animal, they don't completely ignore the jockey. One handicapper advised looking for a jockey with at least a 12% winning record. That may not sound high, but in a competitive field, 12% is "a good thing," the handicapper said.

Be fashionably (and profitably) late

Handicappers aren't likely to be the first in line to place their bets. And there's a reason for that - actually, two reasons. First, since odds are constantly changing, handicappers can't fully determine the "value" until it's gotten close to post time - like, the final two minutes. Otherwise, that 8-1 value-minded bet might end up being a not-so-valuable 4-1 wager. (Which is not to say handicappers don't do their homework hours in advance. Nevertheless, they're ready to adjust their betting strategy based on those last-minute odds.)

Also, handicappers like to take a look at the horses as they come out on the track - about 10 minutes before the race. That allows them to see if the horse is happy and ready to go (an arched neck is a good sign) or if the horse is stressed (sweating or "foaming" is a worrisome warning).

The smartest bet may be no bet at all

Sure, it's fun to play every race. But handicappers are a selective group; they favor races where there's value, and skip others where they just don't see a risk worth taking. Of course, this advice best applies if you're spending a day at the track and have several races ahead of you. With the Kentucky Derby, you're talking a single opportunity to strike gold. So proceed with caution.

-Charles Passy

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-04-24 1844ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.