China's economy is slowing. But its old-age market is booming.

Tanner Brown

Products from anti-aging cosmetics and procedures to elder-care facilities are growth areas as China's demographics go gray

As China's economy settles into a "new normal" of slower growth, many industries are having to downsize or rethink their strategies. But at least one growing sector of the economy is outpacing the country's newly sluggish expansion.

China is aging so rapidly that a wide range of industries catering to older adults, from anti-aging cosmetics to elder-care homes, are sprouting at a breakneck pace.

Just how big is this senior cohort - and the concomitant market opportunity?

China's population shrank for the second year in a row in 2023 as the country reported a record-low birth rate. Many Chinese no longer want to have children, as the cost of raising them in the country is many times higher than it is in most developed countries.

The population aged 60 and above in China now numbers 330 million, roughly equal to the entire U.S. population.

Families in China were often large from the 1950s through 1979, when party leaders instituted the one-child policy. Children of those bigger families are now in their 50s, 60s and 70s.

The Chinese people are also living much longer than before. While the average person in China makes about a third of the average American income, the typical Chinese life expectancy is 78, about two years higher than in the U.S.

Background: China's low birth rate will slow its stock market. Here's when.

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The population aged 60 and above now numbers 330 million, roughly equal to the entire U.S. population, according to the latest numbers from China's statistics bureau.

Li Xinhua, a national political adviser from Taiyuan City in north China's Shanxi Province, was quoted as having told state media that senior citizens' aspirations and demands for a higher quality of life have increased.

"Developing the silver economy conforms to this trend and will help satisfy demand for multilevel and diversified products and services," Li reportedly said.

The anti-aging market is forecast to reach an aggregate value of $15 billion this year. This, however, undersells its significance, with the pursuit of anti-aging impacting sales in many other categories.

A tracker data run by consumer analyst firm China Skinny illustrated that sales of products staking ant-aging claims grew fourfold from 2020 to 2022.

"It still commands one of the highest premiums amongst product claims, and sales revenue has always outperformed relative presence in the market," it found.

The evolution of Chinese society and the rapid changes its people have gone through are an integral part of understanding the aged-related markets.

"Unlike the [post-World War II] baby boomers in the West, older Chinese generations have lived through austere times, and are much more frugal as a result. This is gradually changing, largely as a result of the pandemic, when they came online en masse, and are influenced more by the pulling power of online shopping and social commerce," China Skinny's managing director, Mark Tanner, told MarketWatch.

"To add to this, the generations who have grown up with consumerism are starting to enter their senior years, which is helping increase older Chinese [people's] propensity to spend."

The industries that tap into the wants and needs of both any-age shoppers concerned about aging and actual seniors are vast and varied.

Tanner cited the skincare and beauty products, health supplements, medical devices, treatment services and increasingly even pet food. Food, beverages and ingredients that boast of anti-aging qualities could also be tapped into.

In tourism, messaging and travel packages that cater to older travelers or even anti-aging could resonate with a share of the market.

"Above all, the early age at which Chinese consumers start to take steps to slow down their aging should provide some insights into their proactivity and a long view into many of their purchase decisions," Tanner said.

As in the U.S., some care homes for the aged in China have grown into minicities in themselves, with their own stores and activities, some included in the living price, some as add-ons.

Wei Jianguo, a 72-year-old who just moved into a high-end facility in Shanghai, explained in a phone interview with MarketWatch why he plans to be an active participant, on the consumption side, in the silver economy for some time to come.

"I have a pension. I saved. I have money to spend, and my children to support me if needed. I plan to make these years some of my best," he said.

Among his plans include domestic travel, personal training, Western and Chinese supplements to keep him trucking along, and a change in wardrobe from the business-casual attire he needed in his work and early retirement years.

"I'm wearing a jogging suit and Adidas," he said when asked about his newly adopted garb. "I'm going to be comfortable, and I'm going to be active."

Tanner Brown covers China for MarketWatch and Barron's.

More Tanner Brown dispatches:

Is this the new normal Xi Jinping promised the Chinese people? Yes and no.

Frosty relations between Washington and Beijing have had a chilling effect on U.S. businesses in China

China prognostication is challenging. Witness 2023. And 2024 warning signs are flashing.

Walmart keeps head above water in China as local supermarkets eat themselves alive

-Tanner Brown

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