U.S. industrial output remains soft in January

By Greg Robb

Some hints of a turnaround but not yet

The numbers: Industrial production fell 0.1% in January, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

The gain was slightly above expectations of a 0.2% gain, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Manufacturing alone fell 0.5% after a 0.1% gain in the prior month.

Key details: Utility output jumped 6% in January due to colder weather, boosting overall production.

Motor vehicles and parts output fell 0.2% after a 3.2% jump in the prior month.

Capacity utilization fell to 78.5% in January from 78.7% in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities.

Economists had forecast a 78.8% rate.

Big picture: Economists had expected a soft reading based on the drop in weekly hours worked in the January job report. And winter weather was not help. The trend in factory activity has been soft as the Federal Reserve quickly raised interest rates. There are some hints of a turnaround.

What are they saying? "The manufacturing survey evidence is at least improving, albeit from recession-like levels, so the outlook for output looks a little stronger for 2024," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America Economist at Capital Economics.

Market reaction: Stocks DJIA SPX opened higher on Thursday while the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Ywas down to 4.208% in early morning trading. There was a flurry of economic indicators Thursday morning.

-Greg Robb

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02-15-24 0956ET

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