Should investors 'embrace the suck' of software stocks? Here's what history has to say.
By Emily Bary
Software stocks have a history of outperforming after second-half selloffs -- but bigger could be better this time around
Software stocks have a history of pulling back in the second half of the year before going on to outperform the S&P 500. So how should investors think about the latest dip in software shares?
Those willing to take a six- to nine-month view should "embrace the suck," according to Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne -- and perhaps be a bit more selective than historical trends would suggest.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV has declined 7% from its mid-July peak, and Materne thinks "this pullback is similar to other [second-half] pullbacks in that investors are taking profits in the face of macro uncertainty (sensible) and we won't have a great read on IT spending budgets for another 30-60 days."
Still, there are perhaps some differences between the current selloff and historical ones. "As compared to prior pullbacks, the 10-year [Treasury] at 4.7% changes the dynamic in that profitability and positive cash flow is now a pre-requisite (vs. growth at all costs) and the 'platforms' are materially advantaged vs. smaller vendors as it relates to providing a [free-cash-flow] backstop," Materne said.
For those reasons, Materne is more partial to larger software names that could be better positioned for outperformance when the category recovers. He calls out Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Intuit Inc. (INTU) and Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW) as potential winners in that grouping.
Other software stocks that could outperform include CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) and HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) -- "a select group of growth names that are at scale" and sporting positive free cash flow.
One question that remains is whether software stocks have stopped falling.
"When looking at this year's pullback in software vs. prior years you can see that it is less severe and accordingly, we may not be out of the woods quite yet," Materne said in his report. "However, we believe that profitability across the space is also materially higher, and valuations are still below pre-COVID levels for many software stocks so the fundamental foundation for the group is also better today vs. prior years."
Further, Materne's recent industry conversations with partners indicate a "stable" spending environment, though admittedly one that's not "materially improving yet." And software companies could start to better monetize generative artificial intelligence in the second half of next year and into 2025.
-Emily Bary
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-06-23 0835ET
Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.-
5 Undervalued Stocks to Buy to Play a Little Defense
-
Markets Brief: AI Leaders Excel In Earnings Season So Far
-
What History Tells Us About the Fed’s Next Move
-
What’s Happening In the Markets This Week
-
Alphabet’s New Dividend: What Investors Need to Know
-
Going Into Earnings, Is Palantir Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
Going Into Earnings, Is Eli Lilly Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
-
After Earnings, Is Tesla Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
After Earnings, Is GE Aerospace Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
3 Good Stocks to Buy with Your Tax Refund in 2024 (Or with Any Extra Money)
-
SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs
-
Tesla: Full Self-Driving Approval In China Supports Our View for Deliveries Growth In 2024
-
Philips Earnings: Firm Reaches $1.1 Billion Settlement Agreement
-
AbbVie Earnings: Next-Generation Immunology Drugs Help Offset Humira Biosimilar Pressure
-
Exxon Earnings: Ignore Earnings Shortfall as Long-Term Growth and Improvement on Track