Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart and Target July sales events could mark a turnaround in consumer spending, says Placer.ai

By James Rogers

Inflation has weighed on retail traffic in recent months, but 'the tide may be turning,' says Placer.ai.

Major retailers are preparing their big July sales events, with Amazon.com Inc.'s Prime Day, Best Buy Co.'s Black Friday in July, Walmart Inc.'s Plus Week and Target Corp.'s Circle Week all on deck.

The sales events come at an important time for the retail sector. Data from analytics company Placer.ai indicates that while inflation has weighed on retail foot traffic in recent months, this month's sales events could mark a turning point for major retailers.

"Over the past several months, retail foot traffic has lagged behind previous years as the ongoing inflation continues to strain consumer budgets," wrote Ethan Chernofsky, senior vice president of marketing at Placer.ai, in a blog post. "Still, holidays have maintained their potential to drive traffic spikes."

Related: What not to buy on Amazon Prime Day -- and why discounts may be even bigger this year

Chernofsky pointed to spikes in retail visits for Valentine's Day, Easter, Mother's Day, Father's Day and even St. Patrick's Day -- holidays that are not traditionally associated with discounts. However, Memorial Day, the first major sales event of the year, brought a relatively subdued increase in foot traffic, according to Chernofsky.

"This could indicate that 2023 consumers are being exceptionally intentional with their spending, and visiting stores to buy gifts, chocolates, and other specific items for particular occasions instead of browsing the sales aisles for impulse buys," he wrote. "At the same time, the gap between previous years' retail foot traffic levels and 2023 visits has narrowed in recent weeks -- which may signal that consumers are tiring of their shopping discipline and gearing up to hit the stores."

Amazon's (AMZN) Prime Day is on July 11-12, while Best Buy's (BBY) Black Friday in July runs July 10-12. Walmart's (WMT) Plus Week is July 10-13 and Target's (TGT) Circle Week runs July 9-15.

Related: Amazon Prime Day is coming in July. Here's who else will be offering deals

"As retailers begin busting out the big discounts in July, the tide may be turning ahead of a critical Back to School period," Chernofsky added.

Prime members purchased more than 300 million items worldwide during last year's Prime Day in July, according to Amazon.

Last year's two-day sale saw more households participating and buyers placing more orders with a higher spending total per order than Prime Days in 2021, 2020 and 2019, according to data from market-research company Numerator. The top five items were Amazon's Fire Stick TV, Echo Dot 4 Generation, Echo Show 5, Orgain Organic Protein Powder and the Kasa Smart Plug Mini, says Numerator.

Related: Amazon is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven stocks by this important measure

Shares of Amazon have risen 52% this year, while Best Buy's stock is down 0.4%. Walmart shares are up 11.2% in 2023 and Target shares are down 11%.

-James Rogers

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07-08-23 0855ET

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