Oil prices notch back-to-back gains a day after data reveal a hefty drop in U.S. crude supplies

By Myra P. Saefong and William Watts

Oil futures finished higher on Thursday, extending on a gain from a day earlier when U.S. government data revealed a nearly 10 million-barrel weekly drop in domestic crude inventories.

Still, tough talk from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other global central bank chiefs on Wednesday on the need to keep tightening monetary policy to bring down inflation continued to cap gains, analysts said.

Price action

Market drivers

On Wednesday, WTI settled 2.8% higher and Brent rose 2.5% after the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 9.6 million barrels for the week ended June 23. The EIA report showed weekly inventory gains of 600,000 barrels for gasoline and 100,000 barrels for distillates.

Oil stabilized at support near the 2023 lows after the EIA's reported drop in last week's crude supplies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

On the supply side, OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, is widely viewed as being "maxed out" in terms of its ability to further cut production quotas, so traders are focused on demand, he said.

The EIA's report showed the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rising to the highest level since November 2021, said Richey. That strong consumer demand trend is one of the reasons why WTI oil hasn't dropped to new 2023 lows in recent weeks, he said.

See: Powell and other central bankers vow to keep fighting inflation until there is evidence of success

Still, crude's price gains have been modest against a backdrop of "hawkish comments from the U.S. Fed as inflationary concerns continue," said analysts at ING, in a note. Higher interest rates can raise the potential for a recession, which may lead to lower energy demand.

Powell, participating in a panel discussion at an ECB monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, reiterated Wednesday that a "strong majority" of Fed policy makers expect to deliver two more quarter percentage point interest-rate increases this year. Powell also played down the idea the Fed has shifted to a pattern of delivering rate hikes at every other meeting, saying that he "wouldn't take moving consecutive meetings off the table at all."

Oil futures looked to end the month on Friday with a gain, but traded lower quarter to date.

Read:The U.S. will soon be in a recession, based on commodity price declines: strategist

Also see:Gasoline prices have dropped ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, but drivers won't catch much of a break

Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, recover some of Wednesday's more than 4% decline after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly rise in U.S. stockpiles.

Domestic natural-gas supplies in storage rose by 76 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 23. Analysts called for a storage increase of 83 billion cubic feet on average, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

-Myra P. Saefong

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06-29-23 1521ET

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