'There is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future.' Anheuser-Busch InBev's U.S. profits may tumble, JPMorgan says

By Steve Goldstein

The controversy over briefly having a transgender influencer promote Bud Light may hit U.S. profits substantially at Anheuser-Busch InBev this year, a new analyst note concludes.

JPMorgan analysts led by Jared Dinges say they now expect earnings before interest and tax in the U.S. to slide 26% this year, on a 12% drop in volume and a 10% decline in sales. They note that the latest NielsenIQ data, covering the week to May 6, showed Bud Light sales down 23.6% on a 27.7% drop in volume.

"We believe there is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future," they say.

Also see:Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO says beer shouldn't be focus of debate as Bud Light sales deteriorate

Bud Light sales have deteriorated following a social-media campaign featuring trans activist and actress Dylan Mulvaney. The Wall Street Journal reported that the brewer plans to buy back unsold Bud Light cases that are past their expiration dates from wholesalers.

The JPMorgan team say they don't expect sales to be recovered in fiscal 2024. That said they say the stock is pricing in a 45% drop in U.S. EBIT, and in addition, the company should see margins improve as costs per liter decline and that shareholder returns may be boosted as the company deleverages its balance sheet. "While we understand the hesitancy to add to ABI positions before we have more clarity on the U.S., based on the recent data and our scenario analysis in this note, we believe risk-reward is favorable from here," they say.

Brussels-listed Anheuser-Busch InBev shares rose 0.6% on Tuesday but have dropped 3% this year. U.S.-listed shares (ABI.BT) have weakened by 2%.

-Steve Goldstein

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05-23-23 0734ET

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