U.S. Dollar Strength Weighs on Grains Futures — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Wheat for December delivery fell 2.5% on the Chicago Board of Trade to $5.84 1/4 a bushel as grains came under pressure from a rising U.S. dollar.

--Corn for December delivery settled down 1.2% at $4.42 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery fell 1% to $12.19 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Greenback Weighs: Grains trading on the Chicago Board of Trade fell Thursday as the U.S. dollar rose to a 19-month high amid expectations that higher interest rates are coming to rein in inflation. "A surging U.S. dollar pressured CBOT grain futures as the relative cost of U.S. commodities increased to importers," AgResource said in a note.

"This week's U.S. CPI report showed that rising energy prices are raising inflation worries, with record distillate prices being passed on to consumers," the firm said.

Bean Sales: Some farmer selling of soybeans in the U.S. on Wednesday put the market on the defensive overnight, "and we stayed that way on the day trade taking El Niño risk premium out of prices," Charlie Sernatinger of Marex said in a note. The Department of Agriculture reported a flash export sale 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in 2026/27 marketing year.

A Little Less: U.S. ethanol production slipped to 1.13 million barrels a day last week from 1.143 million barrels a day the week before, the Energy Information Administration reported. Ethanol stocks fell by 89,000 barrels to 24.3 million barrels.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expected production to land between 1.14 and 1.145 million barrels a day, with inventory forecasts ranging from 24 million barrels to 24.9 million barrels.

INSIGHT

Export Watch: With the USDA's November WASDE report in the rear-view mirror and a lower corn crop estimate, the market will need to keep a close watch on exports, Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net said in a note. "The past few weeks, export pace on corn has been picking up but we did see the USDA lower their annual estimate by 25 million bushels," he said.

Even so, "we will need the export pace to pick up even more or we will likely see the USDA lower demand for exports in future reports."

Safe Bet: In its latest WASDE report, the USDA raised its 2026/27 soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.72 billion bushels and cut its ending stocks estimate to 300 million bushels from 315 million bushels.

The market seems to question the 300 million bushel carryover given that Brazil and Argentina are expected to grow 236 million metric tons, "but I have learned in my 40 years that fading the USDA is not a profitable battle," said Gary Sandlund of Futures International. The 300 million number "does not leave much room for error."

Planting At Risk: Lower wheat exports out of Russia and Ukraine due to Black Sea disruptions have meant a buildup of stocks in those countries and lower domestic prices, Rabobank's head of agri commodity markets research Carlos Mera said in a report.

"If farmers in these two key exporters continue to receive depressed prices and face a gloomy outlook for the export season ahead, a large decline in Russian and Ukrainian planted area would define next season," he said. Even a quick resolution so close to winter wouldn't immediately equalize Russian farmgate prices to international prices, leaving spring plantings at risk.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-Tyson Foods Inc. will release its 4Q 2026 earnings report before the market opens Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 12, 2026 15:48 ET (20:48 GMT)