EIA Sees Global Oil Stock Builds in Fourth Quarter

By Anthony Harrup

Global oil inventories are estimated to have fallen by 1.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter of this year, but will likely begin building in the fourth quarter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.

"Although we forecast that global oil production will outpace consumption in 4Q26, the heightened risk of supply disruptions and longer shipping routes will limit the near-term impact of global stock builds until geopolitical risk dissipates and inventories begin to return closer to pre-conflict levels," the EIA said in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook.

The EIA sees global inventories building by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027. It sees most Middle East production outside of Iran to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of next year.

"We expect exports from Iran, however, to remain constrained through the forecast period," the EIA said. The agency expects oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and via alternative routes will remain susceptible to disruption.

The EIA said it expects global oil demand to be down by 2 million barrels a day this year, led by lower consumption in China and in the Middle East, which has seen reduced air travel and less economic activity. Demand is expected to recover in 2027, increasing by 2 million barrels a day, helped in part by a decline in prices.

The agency raised its 2027 Brent price estimate to $86 a barrel from $84 a barrel in its previous outlook, and raised the estimate for WTI to $81 a barrel from $80 a barrel.

In the U.S., crude oil inventories were 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest for the time of year since 2014, the EIA noted. The agency attributed the decline largely to the wide spread between the price of Brent and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, which encouraged U.S. exports and crimped imports.

"Additionally, high crude oil inputs at U.S. refineries over the past several months have helped reduce inventories," the EIA said.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 10, 2026 16:59 ET (21:59 GMT)