Grain Futures Lose Ground Ahead of WASDE Report — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% Monday on the Chicago Board of Trade to $4.39 1/4 a bushel as the market braced for the possibility of a bearish WASDE report due Tuesday.

--Soybeans for January delivery settled down 0.5% at $11.88 1/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.5% to $5.88 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hoping for Less: Corn futures settled lower after a steady start, with the market looking for the USDA to confirm expectations of a smaller corn crop in Tuesday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Last week's Commitments of Traders report confirmed that funds had completed their liquidation of the net-long position in corn, "which puts them in a spot to return to the market as buyers if the USDA revises production lower tomorrow," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect the USDA to peg 2026/27 corn production at 15.94 billion bushels, down from 16.03 billion bushels in the October WASDE.

Export Inspections: Wheat inspections for export in the week ended Nov. 5 rose to 248,536 metric tons from 100,075 tons the previous week, but were down from 291,443 tons in the year-earlier week, the USDA said. Corn inspections edged up to 905,267 tons from 898,391 tons the previous week, but were down from 1.48 million tons in the year-earlier week. Soybean inspections totaled 1.9 million tons, down from 2.51 million tons the week before but above the year-earlier week's 1.12 million tons.

Flash Sale: The USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico for the 2026/27 marketing year.

INSIGHT

Eyes on the Yield: Expectations that the USDA will raise its estimate for the 2026/27 soybean harvest in Tuesday's WASDE report are widely seen as priced in, although the size of the increase matters.

"All eyes will be on the USDA report tomorrow and wondering just how high will the USDA increase the soybean yield?" Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net said in a note. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey see the soybean production estimate at 4.6 billion bushels, up from 4.56 billion bushels in the October WASDE, with the expected yield rising to 53.6 bushels per acre from 53.1 bushels per acre in October.

Focus on Demand: The USDA's November WASDE reports tend to provide the market with some comfort about the size of the year's crops, causing the focus to pivot to the demand side of the balance sheet as affected by growing conditions for corn and soybeans in South America, Arlan Suderman of StoneX said in a note.

"Growing conditions are currently good for Argentina's corn and soybean crops, although it is still early," he said. Growing conditions for soybeans are also good in Brazil, although "that could still change as we move into December when pod fill begins in earnest."

Russia-Ukraine Talks: Wheat traders will be keeping a close watch on this week's talks between Russia and Ukraine for a possible easing of tensions in the Black Sea. "Prospects for negotiations have removed some geopolitical premium from wheat even though Black Sea shipping and infrastructure risks remain substantial," Joe Davis of Futures International said in a note.

"Any credible ceasefire or export-security agreement would likely increase expectations for improved regional grain flows," while failure could quickly restore some risk premium, he added.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Tuesday.

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 12 p.m. ET Thursday .

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 09, 2026 15:29 ET (20:29 GMT)