EMEA Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Little Changed; U.S. Inflation in Focus This Week

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Germany foreign trade; trading updates from UniCredit, Hannover Re

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded flat at the start of the week. Asian stock benchmarks gained; the dollar edged lower; Treasury yields rose; while oil and gold futures rose.

Equities:

Stock futures for European indexes were little changed early Monday, after a roller-coaster week fueled by unease over the artificial intelligence trade and future spending on AI data centers following the U.S. midterm elections.

Fiduciary Capital Management said "conditions for a broad equity bounce are not on the near-term horizon." Whether last week's moves were just a steeper step down in a broad rerating of AI prospects or a capitulation remains to be seen, "but given the sheer scale of money, debt, and future spending promises committed to the trade, we doubt that we will see any meaningful recovery in sentiment anytime soon," the analysts said.

"We've had a healthy market-just one overlaid with ongoing jitters about the tech trade," they said.

Forex:

"EUR/USD remains confined to a narrow trading range near yearly lows, with weekly momentum continuing to favor the bears," said Forex.com's Michael Boutros.

The pair has struggled to establish a sustained recovery from recent declines. "Sellers have been unable to force a decisive breakdown, but repeated attempts to rally have also failed to overcome overhead resistance, leaving the broader bearish structure intact," he added.

Event risk remains heavily U.S.-focused, with U.S. CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday the main catalysts. "A firm U.S. inflation sequence would strengthen the dollar's policy advantage, while softer readings could ease rate pressure and help stabilize EUR/USD."

Bonds:

Although Greece's high public debt remains a key rating constraint, its rapid decline continues to strengthen debt sustainability, Fitch Ratings said. The ratings company affirmed Greece's long-term issuer default ratings at BBB with a stable outlook, and the continuing trajectory of the nation's debt is a factor supporting its ratings.

The rating is also supported by "exceptionally strong fiscal outturns relative to peers," Fitch added. Greece's general government surplus is forecast to be 0.6% of GDP this year, and the country is expected to have a primary surplus of 3.6%, according to Fitch.

Energy:

"Brent oil futures are particularly vulnerable to downside risks if hopes of a US-Iran deal gain traction given physical oil flows are so healthy," said CBA's Vivek Dhar.

CBA estimates that any deal that leads to the U.S. naval blockade being lifted should see Brent oil futures fall toward $70-85/bbl. However, the more likely scenario, especially in the interim, is a ceasefire agreement that sees violence across the Middle East reduced substantially. That type of deal would put Brent between $85-100/bbl. Progress in talks should therefore see Brent futures settle toward $90-95/bbl, Dhar added.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher in Asia amid mixed cues. Investor expectations that a Democratic-controlled Congress would push to end the Middle East conflict are growing, ANZ said.

Meanwhile, a divided U.S. government could mean limitations on spending and borrowing, easing fiscal concerns. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data on Friday raised concerns of further Fed rate hikes, weighing on demand for the unyielding asset, ANZ said. Copper prices rose, though mounting macro headwinds cloud the outlook, Dongwu Futures said. Investors are reassessing the U.S. tariff outlook. Tightness in copper concentrate markets persists, with spot treatment charges holding at low levels amid annual term contract negotiations. China's refined copper output is expected to decline further in November.

Demand remains subdued, Dongwu Futures said. Near term, copper prices will likely remain volatile and trade with a weaker bias despite a constructive longer-term supply outlook, it added. Iron ore fell in Asian trading. Prices are likely to be under pressure in the near term as fundamentals remain soft, said Nanhua Futures.

Supply remains ample, with shipments holding at elevated levels compared with a year earlier. However, demand from mill restocking could give the metal some support, it added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

A Popular New Bet Hailing From Cryptoland Sets Off a Wall Street Turf War

A popular new type of bet that started in the crypto world is setting off a turf war on Wall Street.

Perpetual futures, known as perps, exploded in popularity overseas this year but had mostly been limited to crypto in the U.S. Then last week, Kalshi got regulatory approval to launch perps tied to more than 50 single stocks, including McDonald's, SpaceX and Meta.

Don't Trust the Market's Knee-Jerk Reaction to the Midterms

Take a breath. When it comes to trading politics, the truth is that no one knows anything. The scale of the selloff since Tuesday's election shows just how widespread the belief is that the blue wave that washed Republicans out of Congress will also drown data-center development. Traders and investors think they know a lot.

The moves make sense on fundamental terms only if there's going to be a near shutdown in data-center development. Shares in memory-chip maker Micron plunged 23% in two days, neocloud data-center operator CoreWeave was down 19% and chip makers Nvidia and Broadcom were both down 12%, amid an artificial-intelligence bloodbath.

Iconic Saudi Tower Hit as Yemen's Houthis Target Riyadh

DUBAI-A projectile hit an iconic tower in the financial district of Saudi Arabia's capital Sunday as Yemen's Houthi rebels again targeted Riyadh, striking another landmark in an air campaign that is disrupting life in the kingdom.

The Saudi Aramco tower, also known as Villas in the Sky, sustained damage in a drone-and-missile attack launched by the Houthis, regional officials familiar with the matter said.

Contest to Succeed ECB Head Lagarde Is Officially a Two-Horse Race

European governments are set to choose between two experienced and pragmatic economists from Spain and the Netherlands to succeed Christine Lagarde, who is stepping down as head of the European Central Bank in February.

A group of finance ministers from the 21 members of the eurozone said Friday that it had received two nominations for the job: Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Klaas Knot from the Netherlands.

Nvidia's Board Investigates Reports That CEO Was Spying Target After Affair

Nvidia's board said it is launching an investigation into reports that Jensen Huang has been the target of a foreign espionage effort, after the CEO had a romantic relationship with an executive suspected of working for Chinese intelligence.

U.S. officials last year concluded that Chinese citizen Alice Huang, then a top executive at Megaspeed International, was sharing information with the Chinese government while working with Nvidia to build data centers in Asia, The Wall Street Journal earlier reported. Huang, who also goes by Huang Le, isn't related to the Nvidia CEO.

America Has Become the Last Place to Make Money for the World's Automakers

Volkswagen is considering making its first American pickup in 40 years. Nissan is promising more rugged SUVs. And Detroit is racing to maintain its high margins in the heartland.

The U.S. is emerging as the last true profit engine for the world's carmakers-and the auto industry is scrambling to compete.

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Monday 00:01/UK: Oct KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs

07:00/FIN: Sep Foreign trade

07:00/GER: Sep Foreign Trade

07:00/ROM: Sep International trade

07:00/DEN: Sep Balance of payments (provisional figures)

07:00/DEN: Sep External trade (provisional figures)

07:00/NOR: Oct PPI

08:00/AUT: Aug Foreign Trade

08:00/SVK: Sep Foreign trade

09:00/CZE: Oct Unemployment data

10:00/CRO: Sep Foreign Trade

10:00/CYP: Sep Foreign Trade (provisional)

10:00/MLT: Sep International Trade

11:00/POR: Sep International trade statistics

11:00/IRL: Sep Industrial Production and Turnover

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 09, 2026 00:16 ET (05:16 GMT)