Oil Slides Below $100 a Barrel, With Focus on Iran Outlook After U.S. Midterms - Update

By Giulia Petroni and Farhan Rafid

Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly drop, with Brent crude falling below $100 a barrel as traders await Washington's next move on Iran after President Trump's Republican Party suffered major losses in the midterm elections.

Front-month Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.7% to $97.59 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were down 0.5% to $89.98 a barrel on Friday. Both contracts are on track for weekly losses of nearly 14%.

Prices have been volatile since a sharp selloff earlier this week, driven by growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict following the Democratic sweep of Congress and Trump's acknowledgment that the Iran war contributed to widespread Republican losses.

Some analysts, however, argue the selloff could be overdone. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz put at risk a sustained recovery in Gulf oil exports, while Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export lane is threatened by Yemen's Houthi militants. Traders also fear a renewed U.S. military escalation, which could trigger Iranian retaliation against economic and civilian infrastructure across the region.

The shift in congressional control could complicate Trump's foreign-policy agenda, potentially making it harder for the administration to secure funding for the war, but any change in Washington's balance of power will take time to translate into policy.

In the meantime, major Persian Gulf oil producers continue to offer steep discounts on their crude to offset elevated tanker and freight costs. State oil company Saudi Aramco on Thursday cut the official selling price for December shipments of its Arab Light crude to Asia--the largest market for Middle Eastern oil--by $2 a barrel to a discount of $7 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai benchmark.

Despite continued threats to shipping, the global oil market is showing signs of a return to excess supply as high prices weigh on demand and Middle East oil exports recover, some analysts said.

J.P. Morgan expects supply to have outstripped demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million barrels a day in October. The bank estimates that oil demand has fallen by 3.3 million barrels a day since the conflict began in late February.

Write to Farhan Rafid at farhan.rafid@wsj.com and Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 06, 2026 06:02 ET (11:02 GMT)