Wheat Futures Fall as Trump Expects Russia-Ukraine Deal — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Wheat for December delivery fell 1.3% Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade to $5.91 1/4 a bushel after President Trump said he expects a deal to be reached soon between Russia and Ukraine.

--Soybeans for January delivery settled up 0.5% at $11.93 3/4 a bushel

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.3% to $4.41 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Peace Prospects: Wheat futures beat a retreat after President Trump said he expects a deal might be reached soon to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine, and that such an agreement might possibly involve all of Europe as well. Following consolidation the prior week, prices fell to new lows on Trump's comments, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note. "The downside risk is not believed to be that large from here."

Flash Sales: The Agriculture Department disclosed flash sales of 101,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 136,000 tons of soybeans to China, both for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Bullish Take: Citi is optimistic about the outlook for agricultural commodities. Recent losses for corn and soybeans offer buying opportunities as exports increase, while El Niño-related weather risks, including excessive rainfall, could intensify as Black Sea disruptions persist. "While crop prospects have improved in some regions, we believe markets continue to underestimate the vulnerability of global balances to weather, trade, and input-cost shocks," commodities strategist Arkady Gevorkyan said in a note. For soybeans, biofuel demand, favorable EPA policy expectations and Chinese imports continue to underpin the market, he said.

INSIGHT

Bearish Risk: Grains "refuse to lift their heads" and remain under pressure despite the harvest season being virtually completed and charts showing momentum signals oversold, Charlie Sernatinger of Marex said in a note. The USDA's November WASDE report due Tuesday carries bearish risk as average yield estimates for corn are below the USDA's October number, while average soybean yield estimates are higher and could be up even more, he added. "The only thing good going for the grains is that the cash markets are firming in the cereals."

Cheaper Food: The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index fell 1.2% in October from the previous month with declines in cereals, dairy products and meat offsetting a sharp increase in sugar and a slight rise for vegetable oils. The FAO cereal price index fell 4.5% in October from September, with wheat retreating on subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina, the FAO said. There are also expectations for an easing of constraints on Black Sea exports, the group said. Corn was weighed down by U.S. harvest-related pressure and expectations for ample supply in South America. The food price index was up 5.9% from a year earlier.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Tuesday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 06, 2026 15:49 ET (20:49 GMT)