European Gas Market Braces for Trump's Next Move on Iran After Midterms
By Giulia Petroni
European natural-gas prices rose following the U.S. midterm elections, as traders wait to see whether President Trump will pursue diplomacy with Iran or launch renewed strikes, a decision that could determine the outlook for global LNG flows.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract, Europe's benchmark, gained 1.2% to 92.59 euros a megawatt-hour in early trading Wednesday. Prices remain below the peaks of the 2022 energy crisis but climbed above 100 euros last week--their highest levels since late December of that year--before pulling back on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war.
Democrats won control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress in Tuesday's elections, according to The Wall Street Journal. The outcome could bring greater congressional scrutiny of Trump's foreign policy, although the new Congress won't take office until January, leaving the administration room to pursue its existing approach toward Iran in the coming weeks.
For gas traders, the bigger question is whether the Trump administration will order fresh strikes on Tehran or sit at the negotiation table. Another escalation could send prices sharply higher, pushing the European benchmark back above 100 euros a megawatt-hour, analysts said.
"The uncertainty remains how Iran will respond to an eventual resurgence of strikes and which energy infrastructure in the region will become a target as a result," said Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank. "But for now, it remains uncertain when and if such an attack will take place, especially as there are further Russia/Ukraine peace talks planned in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11."
The stakes are high because shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz--a narrow waterway that used to carry around 20% of global liquefied natural gas--have curbed exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, most of which were bound for Asia. The loss of supplies has intensified competition between European and Asian buyers as both regions seek to secure fuel ahead of winter.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 04, 2026 02:44 ET (07:44 GMT)
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