Corn Futures Fall on Export Worries — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.3% Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade to $4.42 1/2 a bushel as the market worries that USDA export estimates are too high.

--Wheat for December delivery fell 1.1% to $5.99 3/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.2% to $12.14 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Mexico Buying: Private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico of 315,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year, following the 1.73 million ton sale announced Monday. Monday's sale was one of the largest for a single day on record for U.S. corn, "providing a welcome boost to demand following a sluggish start to the 2026/27 marketing year," Joe Davis of Futures International said in a note.

Tuesday's flash sales also included 136,000 tons of corn for South Korea and 134,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27.

Tough Crush: U.S. crushers in September used 199 million bushels of soybeans for crude soybean oil; the raw, unrefined vegetable oil extracted directly from crushed soybeans. That's down from 210 million bushels in August and from 205 million bushels in the year-earlier month, the USDA said.

The September crush was at the low end of expectations, said Mark Soderberg of ADM Investor Services. To reach the USDA's forecast of 2.78 billion bushels, monthly crushes will need to average 235 million bushels from October through August 2027, he said.

Export Doubts: Corn futures were pushed lower by harvest hedging and talk that the USDA export numbers are over-estimated, said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex. "South America is eating our lunch on exports, and it is definitely showing up on both the export sales numbers, and the inspections for export," he said in a note.

Export sales would need to average more than 1.4 million tons every week through next August to meet the latest USDA export estimate of 3.3 billion bushels, he added. "Chances of accomplishment? Not good."

INSIGHT

Wheat Down Under: The contrast between geopolitical uncertainty and weaker wheat prices highlights the need to distinguish potential supply risks from immediate market tightness, analysts at Rabobank said. They noted that the Rosario exchange recently raised its estimate for Argentina's wheat crop, while the Australian harvest is gathering pace.

Harvest progress in the Southern Hemisphere and Black Sea developments will shape wheat prices, they said. "U.S. export demand will depend partly on the delivered-price competitiveness of U.S. wheat relative to competing origins."

Feeling Better: U.S. farmer sentiment picked up modestly in October, rising to 126 from 123 in September as improved views of current conditions outweighed a decline in the index of future expectations, according to Purdue University and CME Group's Ag Economy Barometer.

High input costs remain farmers' biggest concern, and while the farm capital investment index reached its highest level since December of last year, only 20% of respondents in October said it was a good time to invest in machinery and buildings.

"Long-run policy concerns are mitigating optimism regarding long-term sentiment," Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture said in the report.

AHEAD

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 03, 2026 15:47 ET (20:47 GMT)