EMEA Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Mixed at Start of the Week

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Manufacturing PMI data for eurozone, U.K., Germany, France; trading update from Ryanair

Opening Call:

European stock futures were mixed; Asian stock benchmarks were higher. U.S. Treasurys were little changed, the dollar gained slightly. Gold rose and oil fell.

Equities:

European equity futures were mixed early Monday following a tech-fueled market drop last week and ahead of Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections.

The outcome of the election could help determine President Trump's ability to advance his legislative priorities in the second half of his term or whether a divided government will lead to gridlock.'

"We think markets will be happiest with gridlock," said Wall Street strategist Steve Englander. A big Democrat sweep, especially a clear shift left, could weaken growth expectations and the U.S. dollar. Republicans beating expectations and keeping both the House and Senate, however unlikely, would probably push bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher, he said.

Also on the radar this week is the Bank of England rate decision and the U.S. jobs data.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly. Investors are expected to focus on U.S. economic data due this week, including the latest nonfarm payrolls report and ADP private payrolls. The readings will be scrutinized for further evidence on the strength of the U.S. labor market and the broader economy, after recent mixed indicators, UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research said.

Barclays said that while U.S. fundamentals remain resilient and supportive for the greenback, the midterm elections pose risks to AI trade and the dollar.

Bonds:

French government bonds may look attractive on a historical spread chart, but they are competing not only with the U.S. government, but also with higher-yielding JGBs for Japanese capital, as well as Google, Microsoft and the broader AI investment cycle, said Masahiko Loo, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at State Street Investment Management.

"With OAT-Bund spreads now in the 160s (bps), OATs may look historically cheap, but cheap does not necessarily mean attractive. Fitch's negative outlook and continued political and fiscal uncertainty are likely to keep volatility elevated into the April 2027 presidential election. At current levels, the wider spread may simply be compensation for risk rather than an obvious buying opportunity," Loo said.

Energy:

Oil declined amid recent diplomatic efforts to revive peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance sent a message to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Meanwhile, key members of OPEC and their allies agreed Sunday to keep oil production steady in December as concerns that the U.S. could resume strikes against Iran after the midterm elections keep geopolitical risks elevated.

Metals:

Gold rose but remained below the key $4,000 level. Expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on the non-yielding asset, said Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital S.A. Inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations could ease if there is a pullback in oil prices or signs of easing regional tensions, which will support gold.

However, further supply disruptions or a stronger-than-expected October employment report would likely reinforce the case for tighter policy and keep bullion under pressure, Kooijman added.

Copper rose. Booming investment in data centers has been driving expectations of strong demand in the base metal, supporting prices in recent months, ANZ Research analysts said. Ongoing supply tightness could also buoy copper.

Iron ore prices advanced, tracking gains across the ferrous complex, though fundamentals remain weak, Cofco Futures analysts said. Supply remains ample, while steel mill losses have prompted production cuts, weighing on port shipments.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

U.S. Pushes to Restore Russian Gas Sales to Europe Via Ukraine

The U.S. is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Moscow's wartime enemy-Ukraine-as part of negotiations aimed at securing an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials.

The idea, broached by U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff during trips to Moscow and Kyiv in September, would involve selling Russian gas via a U.S. intermediary to circumvent European sanctions-and could create a lucrative opportunity for American investors, people who attended the discussions said.

OPEC, Allies Keep Output Steady While Gulf Shipping Remains Under Threat

Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies agreed to keep oil production steady in December, as concerns that the U.S. could resume strikes against Iran after the midterm elections keep geopolitical risks elevated.

Sunday's virtual meeting of seven core members-Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman-comes as oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. Continued threats to shipping in the Persian Gulf have pushed freight and insurance costs sharply higher, while global onshore oil inventories are near their lowest levels in at least a decade.

Panic and Anger Spread as Europe's Great Pension Covenant Unravels

PARIS-For decades, Europeans have been happy to surrender around half of their pay to the state. In exchange, they could expect to retire in their 60s on a relatively comfortable, state-funded pension.

No longer. Stretched public finances and a rapidly aging population are threatening this covenant, stoking fear and anger across the continent over the future of a cradle-to-grave welfare state voters had long taken for granted.

Binance Resumes Withdrawals After Suffering Biggest-Ever Crypto Hack

Binance on Sunday began allowing customers to resume withdrawals from its exchange after racing to cover its losses in the biggest cyber heist in history.

Apple's new earnings era begins at a critical time for Big Tech

Apple's quarterly results on Monday will be the first under new CEO John Ternus - and his thoughts on faster product rollouts, price increases and artificial intelligence will likely be front and center for Wall Street.

Those results will arrive after Apple AAPL on Friday reclaimed the title of world's largest company, in a show of how the iPhone maker's more disciplined approach to AI spending has largely spared it from a selloff gripping the technology sector.

The Shopping Bots Are Coming for Amazon

Amazon.com has long been the first stop for many online shoppers, but Meta Platforms just built a new one.

In September, the social-media company behind Instagram rolled out its personal AI agent, dubbed Muse. The animated personal shopper that can also complete tasks like booking travel and making budgets has exploded in popularity. More than 10 million people in the U.S. and Canada set up Muse agents in its first month and a half, the company said.

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Expected Major Events for Monday 01:01/IRL: Oct Ireland Manufacturing PMI

05:30/NED: Sep Retail turnover

06:00/NED: Oct Netherlands Manufacturing PMI

07:00/GER: Sep Retail Trade

07:00/TUR: Oct Turkey Manufacturing PMI

07:30/SWI: Sep Retail Sales

08:00/POL: Oct Poland Manufacturing PMI

08:15/SPN: Oct Spain Manufacturing PMI

08:30/CZE: Oct Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI

08:30/SWI: Oct procure.ch Purchasing Managers' Index

08:45/ITA: Oct Italy Manufacturing PMI

08:50/FRA: Oct France Manufacturing PMI

08:55/GER: Oct Germany Manufacturing PMI

09:00/GRE: Oct Greece Manufacturing PMI

09:00/EU: Oct Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

09:30/UK: Oct S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI

10:00/CYP: Sep Retail trade

11:00/POR: Sep Retail trade

11:00/POR: Sep Industrial production index

16:59/AUT: Oct Unemployment figures

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 02, 2026 00:15 ET (05:15 GMT)