Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Midterms, Jobs -2-

The PMIs are closely watched as forward-looking indicators of economic performance, capturing sentiment among businesses and demand trends. A robust reading would underscore views that the world's second-largest economy remains resilient despite headwinds from trade frictions and the energy shock.

Foreign-exchange reserves figures from the central bank will also be in focus.

Australia

The week ahead in Australia will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which holds its policy meeting Monday and Tuesday.

The overwhelming consensus is for the central bank to raise interest rates for a fifth time this year while keeping the door open to further tightening.

The RBA is battling persistent inflation despite aggressively raising interest rates this year, and is increasingly concerned that expectations of higher inflation could become entrenched. Economists say they aren't ruling out another rate increase in December or February, given the RBA's hawkish rhetoric in recent months.

To prevent inflation expectations from rising further, the central bank may opt for more short-term economic pain to curb demand and bring inflation back to target. With interest rates already at their highest level in 15 years and house prices falling at the fastest pace in decades, another rate increase could further weigh on already weak consumer confidence in the final months of the year.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who has recently been outspoken about the risks of higher inflation, is scheduled to speak Thursday. His comments could offer clues about the outlook for the December policy meeting.

Asia PMIs

A slew of monthly manufacturing PMI readings for Asia are due on Monday, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The surveys will be closely watched as cost pressures and higher rates could weigh on business confidence and operating conditions.

Flash PMI data showed that business activity is diverging across different markets as geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions affect the private sector and inflation to various extents.

South Korea

South Korea is scheduled to release its October trade data Sunday, Nov. 1, and inflation figures Tuesday, Nov. 3. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect export growth to have accelerated, while consumer inflation likely eased slightly.

The median forecast from a WSJ poll of 11 economists is for an 86.7% increase in exports from a year earlier, compared with a revised 83.7% rise in September. Imports are projected to have risen 38.1%, resulting in a $38.28 billion trade surplus in October, compared with the previous month's revised $49.97 billion surplus, the poll showed.

"Strong export momentum has continued, supported by more working days than in October last year and sustained strength in semiconductor exports," said iM Securities chief economist Park Sang-hyun.

The median forecast from a separate WSJ poll of nine economists is for consumer prices to have risen 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from September's 2.9% increase. On a monthly basis, prices likely edged up 0.2% in October after rising 0.3% in September, the poll showed.

Mild weather following the Chuseok holiday likely helped stabilize agricultural prices, while a stronger won may have eased upward pressure on import prices, Meritz Securities chief economist Seunghoon Stephen Lee said.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong is set to release advance third-quarter GDP figures and September retail sales data Tuesday. The city's economy has shown resilience this year, expanding 4.3% from a year earlier in the second quarter.

Citi expects third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5% from a year earlier, supported by AI-related merchandise trade and stronger investment. However, modest consumption growth could lead to a slight contraction of 0.3% from the previous quarter, its economists said.

Southeast Asia

Inflation will be in focus across Southeast Asia during the week, with rising energy and food prices expected to push up consumer prices in the region.

In the Philippines, headline inflation likely accelerated to 8.4% in October from 7.2% in September, according to ANZ Research. Crude-oil prices reached a six-month high by the end of October, likely keeping domestic fuel prices elevated.

Thailand's headline inflation is also expected to rise sharply, with Barclays forecasting a 3.5% increase in October, up from 2.82% in September, driven by higher energy and food prices. The Bank of Thailand expects inflation to continue rising into early 2027 due to higher energy costs and the effects of El Nino.

Indonesia's October inflation is expected to edge up to 3.4% from 3.3% in September, driven largely by higher food prices, ANZ said. Meanwhile, Indonesia's September trade surplus likely narrowed as rising crude-oil prices pushed up import costs, according to Barclays.

The nation's growth print for the third quarter is expected to ease to 5.2% from 5.3% in the previous quarter as weaker consumer spending weighed on activity, partly offset by government support for lower-income households, according to DBS.

Malaysia

Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75% at its November meeting, although the risk of a 25-basis-point hike remains, Citi analysts said.

Stronger-than-expected third quarter growth, rising producer prices and wage pressures, alongside Budget 2027 measures, could prompt an earlier rate increase, they say. Citi now expects a 25 basis point hike in January 2027, but a stronger signal at the November meeting remains possible as inflation risks persist.

Taiwan

Taiwan is due to release its October inflation data on Thursday. The island's consumer prices likely remained elevated, with economists' estimates ranging from 2.3% to 2.7% growth. Higher global energy costs fed into higher electricity prices, and airfare prices and services inflation remained sticky, DBS economists said.

The odds for Taiwan's central bank to deliver its first interest rate hike in December after standing pat for 10 consecutive quarters are rising. Goldman Sachs economists expect it to deliver three consecutive quarterly rate increases of 12.5 basis points each starting in December. The economists expect this tightening cycle to be short, however, given prospects of a brief Fed tightening cycle followed by a potential resumption of rate cuts in the second half of 2027.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 30, 2026 13:08 ET (17:08 GMT)