EMEA Morning Briefing: Central Bank Decisions in Focus This Week

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Germany ifo business climate index; trading update for Galp Energia

Opening Call:

European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks fell. U.S. Treasurys fell, the dollar weakened. Gold rose and oil fell.

Equities:

European equity futures rose as investors looked ahead to a week full of central bank meetings around the world, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Major earnings are expected as well. Luke Rahbari, CEO of Equity Armor Investments, said that it would be the most important week of the earnings season. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon - which together are worth nearly $11 trillion - would likely dictate the market's direction, he noted.

"I think the bar is high for many companies, and with cautious to negative market sentiment, it could be a tricky week," Rahbari said.

Around a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported quarterly results so far, according to FactSet. Of those, 83% have put up earnings per share that have come in better than what analysts expected.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened. Goldman Sachs economists view overall FX volatility as remaining subdued while there are limited signs of divergence or pressing recession concerns.

They view this as a "market debating two tail scenarios": Either, recent U.S. tech-related headlines could be a signal of slower and smaller capital expenditures with some corporate credit-related tightening in financial conditions, they said.

Alternately, it is possible that sovereign credit-related concerns could re-emerge in Europe, which would be negative for euro and positive for U.S. dollar, they added.

"We expect inflation pressures to moderate, growth to cool somewhat, and policy to remain relatively synchronized in the G10," they wrote.

Bonds:

The yield on U.S. Treasurys were lower after ending the week lower as worries about France's government debt sent investors seeking safety ahead of an expected Fed hold.

Markets priced in a return to hiking in December, amid tepid consumer sentiment and resilient economic activity.

Durable goods orders, housing data, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index are due before the FOMC decision, with GDP and PCE coming later in the week.

Energy:

Oil prices fell on a likely technical correction after Brent futures ended last week at the highest level since April this year.

The increase in Brent oil futures last week reflected growing supply fears, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar, noting the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia.

Still, inventory depletion risks to oil have paradoxically declined in the near term, as oil flows from the Middle East have reportedly tracked back to around prewar levels. These levels could be high enough to support a rebuild in global oil and refined product stockpiles, he added.

Metals:

Gold prices were higher, trading just above the psychologically-important $4,000-a-troy-ounce level. The precious metal could be weighed as renewed rise in oil prices are reviving inflation concerns, said Kudo's Konstantinos Chrysikos.

"Escalating tensions in the Middle East have raised the risk of energy supply disruptions and damage to infrastructure, lifting crude and strengthening expectations that interest rates could continue to rise," he added.

Copper prices fell as mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and a stronger dollar weighed on market sentiment, Everbright Futures analysts said.

Lingering concerns over global growth and uncertainty around U.S. copper import tariffs are adding to headwinds, while the prospect of continued inventory inflows into the U.S. is easing supply tightness elsewhere, they said.

Still, historically low domestic Chinese inventories and persistent supply-side constraints could offer some support to prices, they added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Two AI Chipmakers Make Up 34% of America's Earnings Boom

Wall Street has rested much of its optimism about the stock market on a surge in corporate earnings. The catch is that the profit growth is being driven by a handful of AI giants.

Analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to report a 30% jump in third-quarter earnings from a year ago, according to FactSet, boosting investor confidence that the good times can keep rolling so long as businesses keep printing money. But just two companies-Nvidia and Micron-account for 34% of that growth, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis.

AstraZeneca Readies New Portfolio of Targeted Cancer Therapies

MADRID-AstraZeneca is readying to file the first of a new portfolio of targeted cancer drugs for regulatory approval, moving to cement its position in one of the fastest-growing corners of the oncology market.

Through its alliance with Japan's Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca has been at the forefront of the latest generation of a class of medicines known as antibody-drug conjugates, or ADCs, which aim to replace standard chemotherapy by striking tumors directly with a toxic agent. But the U.K. drugmaker is now developing an in-house lineup.

AstraZeneca Readies New Portfolio of Targeted Cancer Therapies

MADRID-AstraZeneca is readying to file the first of a new portfolio of targeted cancer drugs for regulatory approval, moving to cement its position in one of the fastest-growing corners of the oncology market.

Through its alliance with Japan's Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca has been at the forefront of the latest generation of a class of medicines known as antibody-drug conjugates, or ADCs, which aim to replace standard chemotherapy by striking tumors directly with a toxic agent. But the U.K. drugmaker is now developing an in-house lineup.

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Expected Major Events for Monday 06:00/FIN: Sep PPI

07:00/SWE: Sep PPI

08:00/CZE: Oct Business cycle survey (consumer/business confidence)

08:00/SPN: Sep PPI

09:00/GER: Oct ifo Business Climate Index

10:00/LUX: Aug Trade

11:00/UK: Oct CBI Distributive Trades Survey

17:59/UK: Adzuna UK Job Market Report

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 26, 2026 01:18 ET (05:18 GMT)