Wheat Futures Drop as Funds Keep Shedding Long Positions — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for December delivery fell 2.3% to $6.28 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday, amid indications that attempts are being made to restart negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is spurring traders to close more long positions previously opened to hedge supply-chain risk.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.2% to 12.46 1/4 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.5% to $4.64 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Pushing On: Wheat futures on the CBOT again led the grains complex lower with traders continuing to cut exposure in long positions on news that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk a possible peace deal. No representative from Ukraine was present at the meeting. Technically, CBOT wheat is running out of remaining open long contracts to close, Charlie Sernatinger of Marex said in a note.

Cooperative Weather: Closer to home, farmers are seen as pushing ahead on harvesting their 2026 crops. "With good weather throughout the Corn Belt, it should be a productive week," AgMarket's Matt Bennett said in a note. A clear week with increased harvesting may push this year's harvest pace past the five-year average, which until now corn and soybeans have been lagging behind.

Fuel Surplus: Stocks of ethanol in the U.S. rose week-over-week, according to EIA data. Stocks surged by 616,000 barrels for the week ended Oct. 16, to 24.56 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones anticipated stocks to land anywhere from 23.7 million barrels to 23.9 million barrels. Average daily production also rose, climbing to 23,000 barrels a day to 1.033 million barrels a day.

INSIGHT

Setting Aside: China is again one of the leading destinations for a new wave of sizable U.S. grain exports, the USDA said. The agency reported 134,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for 2026/27 delivery, while 165,000 tons were sold to Spain for 2026/27. It's the sixth straight business day of flash sales announcements, according to USDA data. However, that isn't enough to kick-start the U.S. grain demand engine, Futures International's Gary Sandlund said. "All options continue to bleed out as there simply is not fear in any grain market."

Symptoms of Escalation: Increasing hostilities in the Black Sea region may mean a large cut to grain exports coming out of Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year. Agricultural consultancy SovEcon said in a note it expects Ukraine's grain exports to decrease by 5.1 million metric tons in the marketing year, falling to 33 million tons. Ukraine's Odessa ports stay blocked as attacks on other ports, vessels, or valuable infrastructure are growing in severity. "Ships leaving the Danube have now been targeted even in Romanian and Bulgarian waters--something we hadn't seen before," SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 21, 2026 15:55 ET (19:55 GMT)